Money markets now assuming a Fed funds rate HIKE of +25bp by March 2027, which seems absurd given that the U.S.-Iran war will likely be long over by then and if history repeats, brent crude falls back to the $70/bbl range as it did in 2022 within 9-12 months after Russia invaded Ukraine. Too many investors are blindly extrapolating out the current environment rather than thinking logically through what happens next with midterm elections in November.
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