$XIAOMI-W(01810.HK)

⏰Xiaomi Update: Retesting Support – Trade Cautiously Ahead of Earnings

Last reviewed: 21 April 2026. Current price: HKD 30.14

Back in late March and April update, i flagged HKD 30.77 as a strong buy zone. Now in May, price has dipped to HKD 30.14, revisiting critical support and with Q1 2026 earnings looming large.

🔷Technical Analysis

🟢 Bollinger Bands: Price is pressing the lower band (~HKD 29.50–29.95) on 4H/Daily charts, signaling deep short-term oversold conditions. Bands are compressing, hinting at a volatility squeeze.

🟢RSI: Daily RSI at 40.74, 4H at 40.31 – oversold but no bullish divergence yet; downward momentum slowing, not reversed.

🟢Trend: Downtrend from HKD 60 is mature but no clear reversal confirmation.

🔷Fundamentals & Key Updates

🟢Upcoming Q1 2026 Earnings: Results are due on 22 May 2026. The market is focusing on smartphone margin recovery, IoT growth and EV (SU7) delivery/profitability updates. Expect heightened volatility around the release.

🟢Share Buybacks: Management confidence remains strong, with ongoing repurchases under the HK$2.5B program, forming a solid floor near current levels.

🟢Analyst View: Consensus is still Buy and overweight (targets HKD 40–55) but some have trimmed near-term estimates, citing cautiousness on margin pressures.

⚠️ Verdict: Cautious Trading & Measured Accumulation

This is a value zone but trade carefully ahead of earnings.

✅ Strong Support: HKD 29.50–30.00 (backed by buybacks)

🎯 Targets: HK$34.50 → HK$40.00

Good risk-reward but let price and earnings confirm the bounce first.

Not financial advice. Do your own DD.