Optical is quietly the tightest link in the whole AI buildout. The 2026 AI optical transceiver market is heading for around US$26 billion, but 800G output is running 40 to 60 percent below demand, and the choke point is the EML laser. Nvidia already moved to secure supply, committing US$4 billion to lock priority access at Lumentum and Coherent and pushing everyone else past 2027. For investors the read is simple: in a shortage, the names that actually own the laser capacity hold the pricing power, and right now that is a very short list.
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