SpaceX At USD 1.75T: A Scarcity Trade, Not Yet A Value One

I have watched a lot of hyped debuts and SPCX is the rare one where the scarcity is genuinely real. A 4% float against USD 250 billion of orders is not manufactured demand, it is a structural shortage of shares. That is also exactly why I am cautious here.

Scarcity cuts both ways

When almost nothing trades, price discovery is broken in both directions. The 19% close and the 31% intraday spike tell you about supply, not about what the business is worth. MSCI early index inclusion adds forced passive buying in the days after listing, which props the price up artificially before the float widens.

The parts I actually like

Starlink is the story that holds up under scrutiny. Roughly USD 11.4 billion in revenue and USD 4.4 billion operating profit is a real connectivity franchise with a widening moat. If I were building a thesis, that is the anchor, not Starship economics or the xAI losses.

My plan

I am not buying the first week. I want to see the float expand, the index flows settle, and a real earnings cadence before I underwrite a trillion-dollar-plus valuation. Great company, wrong moment to pay up. I would rather miss the first 20% than catch the air pocket.