The Scarcity Trade Is Real, The Valuation Is A Question
SPCX adding another 20% on day two to clear 2.5 trillion is the cleanest scarcity trade I have seen in years. A roughly 4% float against enormous demand does not need good news to rise, it just needs buyers and no sellers. That is also why I will not anchor on the price.
Separating the company from the chart
Starlink is the part that holds up under scrutiny, a real connectivity franchise throwing off cash. Starship and xAI are options, plausible but unproven at the scale the market cap implies. The day two pop tells me about supply and index flows, not about which of those bets pays off.
My approach
I would rather underwrite this after the float widens and a real earnings cadence appears. Buying a thin float at a record on day two is a momentum bet dressed up as a long term thesis. Great company, and I can wait for a price that reflects the business rather than the squeeze.
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