$BTC/USD(BTCUSD.HAS)

🏆 [Weekly] Bitcoin & Crypto Market Update

Bitcoin ended the week lower, its rebound stalling after the Fed signaled upcoming rate hikes. Currently trading at $63,456, BTC enters a critical consolidation phase amid short-term volatility and a broader macroeconomic shift.

🔷Technical Snapshots

🟢4-Hour Chart: Bitcoin is compressing tightly within its Bollinger Bands. The middle SMA acts as overhead resistance at $63,877 with the lower band sits at $61,630. A neutral 45.74 RSI signals a brief pause and stabilisation.

🟢Daily Chart: Highlighting a structural descent, BTC hovers just below its daily middle band of $64,034. The lower Bollinger Band at $59,435 serves as a vital defense line for bulls. Notably, the daily RSI has dropped to an oversold 37.35, suggesting selling pressure is nearing exhaustion.

🔷Derivatives, Flows & Broader Markets

🟢Derivatives & Positioning: A massive $13 billion options expiry approaches, with bears holding the upper hand. Signalling further downside risk, Polymarket data assigns a 99.85% probability for BTC to hit $56,000.

🟢Flows & Capital Shifts: While U.S. equities rose post-Fed, crypto ETFs saw $111 million in outflows. Capital is likely rotating away amid the SpaceX stock pullback and preferred stock pressures.

🟢Macro Risk-Off & Regulation: Risk-off sentiment is reinforced by a simultaneous selloff in gold and silver. Compounding this, regulatory uncertainty is ramping up as discussions intensify around the U.S. CLARITY Act.

🔷The Verdict

Bitcoin is searching for a definitive floor. While the macro trend remains bearish under regulatory and options pressure, oversold daily metrics hint at a potential relief rally. This is provided that the support at $61,630 and $59,435 holds firm.

Not financial advice. Personal view. Do your DD.