Morgan Stanley: Memory Pricing
> ๐ 3Q26 DRAM Outlook: TrendForce forecasts a 13โ18% QoQ conventional DRAM price hike, perfectly matching GS estimates (+16% for Samsung).> ๐ป PC & Server Strength: PC DRAM expected up 15โ20% QoQ as OEMs aggressively build inventory. Server DRAM tracking up 13โ18% QoQ, fueled by a widening DDR5 premium (now 22% over DDR4).> ๐ฑ Mobile DRAM Cooling: Expected up 8โ13% QoQ. A noticeable cooldown from massive 2Q spikes (73โ85%) as suppliers ease hikes to support consumer electronics supply chains.> โ ๏ธ NAND Falling Short: TrendForce projects a 10โ15% QoQ increaseโmissing Goldman's +21% estimate. While Enterprise SSDs hold strong (+18โ23%), consumer NAND (eMMC/UFS) is soft at +5โ10%.> ๐ Spot vs. Contract: Spot market continues to lead. DDR5 16Gb spot carries a 17% premium over contract, while older DDR4 8Gb spot sits at a steep 38% premium.
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