$Oracle(ORCL.US)

Oracle: AI Goldmine or Cash-Flow Trap?

Project Jupiter puts Oracle firmly in the AI infrastructure race, but the price of that ambition is heavy. FY2026 revenue rose 17% to US$67.4bn, yet free cash flow swung to -US$23.7bn as capex ballooned to US$55.7bn.

The bull case remains compelling: Oracle’s backlog reached US$638bn, while management expects FY2027 revenue of about US$90bn. But Jupiter’s power-pipeline delay highlights the key risks—execution, financing, construction costs and when these investments actually translate into cash.

Analysts remain broadly positive, though targets vary sharply, reflecting concerns over valuation and capital intensity.

View: HOLD, not chase. Meaningful accumulation would be closer to US$135–145, where risk/reward improves.

For option writers, I prefer a bullish cash-secured put over buying calls: 30–60 DTE, around 0.20–0.30 delta, targeting US$125–135 strikes. If assigned, covered calls around US$165–180 could monetise the rebound.

The AI opportunity is real—but Jupiter has to turn billions of capex into billions of cash flow.

Not financial advice.