The Fed's interest rate cut is basically a done deal, the main question is when and by how much?

The current market expectation is that a September rate cut is the mainstream, and if a September rate cut does happen, then the July FOMC meeting will inevitably lay the groundwork for it, releasing inflation data that makes policymakers comfortable enough with the imminent rate cut, etc.

But judging from the current enthusiasm of consumer spending and corporate investment, rate cuts in September and November are both viable options. With most bets currently on a September cut, the late July FOMC meeting may not be as optimistic as the market expects.

Looking at the trends in hard tech (AI semiconductors) and soft tech (the five giants), after Google's "better to over-invest than miss the opportunity," the market is increasingly inclined to view AI semiconductors' performance gains as driven by over-investment. Sustainability is an issue after this wave, so short-term valuations are still being slashed. As for soft tech companies, after two consecutive weeks of valuation cuts, they have temporarily stabilized ahead of the expected FOMC meeting paving the way for rate cuts and the upcoming batch of earnings reports.