邦娜娜涨
2024.09.24 10:23

We knew about the press conference yesterday, and were afraid it would be another disappointment, but it turned out pretty good with most expectations met.

1. A 50bp RRR cut and 20bp cut on 7-day reverse repo rate basically signal that interest rate cuts are on the way.

2. Reducing existing mortgage rates and equalizing down payment requirements for second homes with first homes - this had been rumored for long and finally materialized. Real estate instability does have huge impacts. With current mortgage rates so high, people are obviously paying off loans early, leaving less disposable income for the key consumer group aged 30-50 to spend. This makes stimulation difficult. Honestly it's a bit late.

3. Creating special loans for share buybacks at 1.75% rate - probably the first direct mention of stocks in years instead of vague terms. Also establishing structural monetary tools to support capital markets, where funds obtained by institutions can only be invested in stocks, currently sized at 500 billion yuan with room to grow. This might be why markets surged today - targeted capital injection into stocks.

4. Plenty of restructuring news too, with stabilization funds under research etc.

Basically all key demands were addressed, and markets reacted very positively without the usual high-open-low-close pattern, going straight to high-open-high-close.

Frankly, having worked in finance for years though not directly in investing, I interact with many investors. The current pessimism is unprecedented - worse than the 2016 circuit breakers, 2018 crash, or 2020 limit-downs. Many who used to talk about buying A-shares while actually doing so have now stopped talking and started buying overseas assets instead. The aversion to A-shares is intense.

I obviously want A-shares to recover since it's our domestic market, and hope my future living/retirement assets can rely on it. So practicing what I preach, most of my assets are in A-shares now.

Anyway, best wishes for A-shares, and may our people profit in our own market.

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