Throughout historical market trends, the main upward wave of a sector is closely related to the industry's prosperity cycle, whether this prosperity belongs to the penetration rate increase stage of the growth phase or a one-time cycle. In short, it is the improvement in profitability (expectations) that drives valuation increases, forming a Davis double play. Only this year's high-dividend market is special—there is no prosperity to accompany it, not even expectations. All it has is "stable performance and decent valuation," yet it still experiences a main upward wave. In fact, this is a product of a unique era—since the recorded central bank data after the reform and opening up, this is the first time in 45 years that M1 has declined year-on-year, exhibiting the extremely rare typical deflation characteristics under a credit-based monetary system. This situation directly triggers risk aversion and a shortage of low-risk income-generating assets. Government bonds are the first to be bought up, and high-dividend stocks are also grouped by funds due to similar concepts. Note that high-dividend stocks only borrow the "income-generating" concept from the bond market, but in fact, as equity assets, high-dividend stocks do not possess the "low-risk" characteristics of bonds. Therefore, the essence is still speculative capital speculation, not the so-called value investment philosophy purifying the speculative market.

That’s why I’m not optimistic about the high-dividend sector despite the central bank leveraging to buy stocks. The purpose of market support is already clear—superficially, it’s about creating a wealth effect to stimulate consumption potential, but this is actually shallow. The root cause is to reverse the M1 decline trend, break through the barriers to monetary circulation, and ensure the smoother implementation of subsequent fiscal and monetary policies, thereby revitalizing the entire economic system. Ultimately, it’s about saving the economy and expectations. And economic recovery is precisely the biggest risk to the so-called "bond-like" concept of the high-dividend sector.