The future of the future, what exactly is the future?

Since we are a stock platform, let's talk about investments in stocks and future trends.

This article does not consider short-term technical content, as all the experts are already familiar with it. But as for the future, I hope to provide some inspiration based on my humble understanding.

What is the future? Some say it's robots completely replacing humans, others say it's space travel. While these are indeed possibilities, as a small investor, I believe the near future is more worth paying attention to.

In my opinion, the near future is the Fourth Industrial Revolution. I've selected three technologies most likely to drive it: generative AI (which I consider more of an Industrial Revolution 3.5), quantum computing, and controlled nuclear fusion.

When studying the Kondratiev wave, we find that each industrial revolution doesn't start with the emergence of technology but rather with its mass production, supporting infrastructure, and the significant boost in social productivity it brings. Let me briefly outline each industrial revolution.

First Industrial Revolution:

The First Industrial Revolution was marked by the invention of the steam engine. James Watt wasn't the inventor but the improver of the steam engine.

Around 1679, French physicist Denis Papin created the first working model of a steam engine after observing steam escaping from his pressure cooker. His contemporary, Samuel Morland, also proposed the idea of a steam engine.

In 1698, Thomas Savery and in 1712, Thomas Newcomen built early industrial steam engines, each contributing to the development of steam technology.

From the late 16th century to the late 17th century, Britain's mining industry, especially coal mining, had grown significantly. Human and animal labor alone could no longer meet the demand for draining mine water, and coal was abundant and cheap as fuel. This practical need drove many, including Britain's Savery and Newcomen, to explore and experiment with "using fire to lift water."

Savery built the world's first practical steam-powered water pump, patented in Britain in 1698 as the "Miner's Friend." The device used steam condensation to create a vacuum and lift water, though it was limited to depths of about six meters. Deeper mines required higher steam pressure, which was difficult and dangerous at the time.

Newcomen and his assistant John Calley invented the atmospheric steam engine in 1705, used to drive independent water pumps. This design spread quickly across Britain and later Europe, with variants produced until the early 19th century. Newcomen's engine introduced steam into a cylinder, then cooled it to create a vacuum, allowing atmospheric pressure to push the piston. However, its thermal efficiency was low due to heat loss during condensation, limiting its use to coal-rich areas.

Watt applied scientific theory to identify the flaws in these designs. In 1765, he invented a steam engine with a separate condenser, patented in 1769. From 1765 to 1790, he made a series of improvements—such as the separate condenser, insulated cylinders, piston lubrication, planetary gears, parallel motion linkages, centrifugal governors, and pressure gauges—tripling the efficiency of Newcomen's engine and ultimately creating the industrial steam engine.

But the Industrial Revolution began in the 1760s, nearly a century later. It involved prolonged technological and capital accumulation before culminating in the shift from handicraft workshops to large-scale machine industry, dramatically boosting productivity.

Second Industrial Revolution:

"To get rich, build roads first." The invention of the internal combustion engine brought cars, trains, and airplanes onto the historical stage.

The rise of railway networks breathed new life into milk, Coca-Cola, chocolate, and financial insurance. Standard Oil also expanded massively during this period, and Coca-Cola was born.

But the Industrial Revolution wasn't a smooth process. The Second Industrial Revolution saw frequent railway accidents, redundant construction, and wasteful competition. Financial products were marred by speculation and fraud. The U.S. overtook others to build the world's largest railway network, but overcapacity and the bursting of the railway financial bubble led to a severe economic crisis in 1857. Amid this chaotic and bloody process, the modern economy's critical infrastructure—the railway network—took shape, stimulating economic cycles for the next 50 years.

Third Industrial Revolution:

Electricity, telecommunications, and computer technology.

The development of electronic computing was another major breakthrough. The first-generation computers in the late 1940s used vacuum tubes. In 1959, transistor computers emerged, with speeds exceeding 1 million operations per second. By 1964, this reached 3 million. In the mid-1960s, integrated circuits combined many electronic components into small areas, enabling speeds of tens of millions of operations per second, suitable for general data processing and industrial control. The 1970s saw fourth-generation large-scale integrated circuits, with 1978 computers reaching 150 million operations per second. The 1980s introduced AI computers, and the 1990s brought optical and biological computers. Roughly every 5–8 years, speed increased tenfold, size shrank tenfold, and cost dropped tenfold.

The internet companies everyone chases today are the pinnacle of the Third Industrial Revolution.

The internet's boost to productivity far exceeded that of the First and Second Industrial Revolutions, delivering a perfect "dimensional strike."

From these three industrial revolutions, we see that technological advancements create new lifestyles and consumption patterns, enabling decades of scalable growth. Whether it's oil as a primary industrial energy source or everyone owning a computer and phone, the technology must have the potential to benefit everyone, not just specific industries. Otherwise, it can't drive a major cycle.

Finally, the next industrial revolution must also absorb the excess capacity from the previous one, create new jobs, and have spillover effects that significantly boost efficiency in other industries.

Based on this understanding and reasoning, the most likely candidates for the next cycle are, as I mentioned earlier: generative AI, quantum computing, and controlled nuclear fusion.

I consider generative AI more of an extension of the Third Industrial Revolution rather than a new technological development, hence "Industrial Revolution 3.5."

As investors, studying industrial revolutions helps identify the next growth opportunities. For quantum computing and controlled nuclear fusion, here are some relevant stocks (not investment advice, just for reference):

Quantum Computing:

$IonQ(IONQ.US) 

$IBM(IBM.US) 

Controlled Nuclear Fusion:

Apologies, but known companies like Helion (backed by Microsoft) and Commonwealth Fusion Systems are not yet publicly traded. But they're worth watching.