The real biggest macro in my opinion:

$Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI.US)$Strategy(MSTR.US)$Tesla(TSLA.US)

Grasping macro trends is the most important in investment. What is macro? I deeply agree with the article on x, and I will repost it as follows:

https://x.com/Wilsonchen1101/status/1870724651292492194?t=GpgH8QJYQDdOoyzAYIq_EQ&s=19

As expected, the interest rate was cut by 25 basis points because Powell said: Good Afternoon, and the market fell in response;

The divergence is getting larger, and the expected returns are getting stronger;

It's just the end of the year, so let's briefly discuss a few viewpoints that have emerged again on Twitter regarding the decline;

1. The decline of SPX500 (they describe it as a crash), does it mean that the U.S. economy is heading towards a full recession, and thus pessimistic about the future market;

2. Will there be a black swan;

3. Is this the peak;

4. Will there be another imitation season;

5. If Powell turns hawkish, will the 25-year interest rate cut continue;

Let's take them one by one;

Everyone is basically using historical experience to infer and speculate about the current economic recession;

However, people tend to overlook that politicians are the most astute group of people. The 2008 financial crisis taught them: when the economy encounters major troubles, how to inject liquidity to stabilize the situation;

This method has been continuously practiced since then, and it has worked every time;

The most recent example is during the pandemic, when supply and demand were severely imbalanced, the supply side completely stagnated, and the demand side was also severely impacted. During that time, there was indeed a quarter where GDP experienced the most severe decline in history. Logically, this should have been a major economic collapse, but the result was that a comprehensive economic recession did not occur; super liquidity solved everything;

By 2022-2023, everyone expected that a significant rise in interest rates and soaring inflation would lead to an economic recession, which is the standard conclusion in economics textbooks. But what was the result? Along with the Treasury's liquidity injection in T-bills, asset prices continued to rise steadily; Especially in terms of assets, why is it said that a comprehensive recession is unlikely to occur?

An important sign of a comprehensive recession is a credit crisis, which means that the lending system has major problems, such as a significant drop in asset values, collateral becoming worthless, people unable to borrow money, and then the economy collapses;

However, they (American politicians + core interest groups) will never allow asset prices to drop too severely; this is the core of the core! Once asset prices in the market drop significantly, whether it's housing prices or stock prices, they will inject funds into the market to prop up asset prices and let the market recover, especially after the training from the subprime mortgage crisis, this has basically become the core route for the stability of the U.S. economy;

By printing money to weaken the real purchasing power of long-term government bonds and bank deposits, so that after the new system takes shape, the elites still hold power; this is the fundamental rule of the game;

In the absence of a crisis at the level of .com, everything can be solved with liquidity; just turn on the money printing machine to suppress the problems;

This was the case in 2018, this was the case in 2019, this was the case in 2021, and this was still the case in 2022; as long as there is liquidity, the basic situation can be stabilized;

Additionally, due to technological innovation, compared to the previous 20 years, the structure of companies and the economy has also changed;

In the past, companies, especially those traditional large companies like General Electric and AT&T, relied heavily on borrowing to develop (financing through debt and physical assets);

But now it is completely different; many companies in the new economy prefer equity financing, which means directly letting investors buy shares of the company instead of borrowing money. Therefore, even if certain collateral (such as houses or machinery) encounters problems, it will not trigger a chain reaction that leads to an economic collapse like before;

Of course, the economy will inevitably encounter problems in certain industries, such as the traditional automotive industry and the oil industry, which may experience localized recessions, but these are just localized issues;

Now, making the entire economy collapse is really difficult. Because as soon as problems start to escalate, they will always inject funds into the market or solve problems through new financing models;

Therefore, at present, it is very difficult for the U.S. economy to experience a comprehensive deep recession in the foreseeable future;