
Rate Of ReturnDuring the upward phase of the long-term debt cycle, despite people being heavily indebted, lenders can still freely provide credit. This is because the upward phase of the debt cycle is self-reinforcing: increased spending leads to higher income levels and rising asset values, which in turn enhance borrowers' ability to borrow, further increasing procurement and consumption expenditures. Almost all market participants are willing to take on more risk. New financial intermediaries and instruments are often not subject to regulatory oversight and protection, making them more competitive, capable of delivering higher returns, assuming higher leverage, and providing loans with greater liquidity and credit risk. Due to abundant credit, borrowers often overspend, creating an illusion of prosperity, and lenders become complacent due to the favorable conditions. However, this phenomenon is unsustainable. The growth rate of debt cannot forever outpace the funds and income available for repayment, so debt problems will inevitably arise sooner or later. — "The Big Debt Cycle"
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