Interest rate cut expectations boost sectors, Powell's speech becomes key! Russia-Ukraine drone shadow war + Hong Kong stock earnings season

1. The market generally expects the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September to exceed 92%, which has driven the stock prices of interest-rate-sensitive sectors such as homebuilders to rise by 4.2%-8.8% recently. However, the Trump administration continues to pressure the Federal Reserve to adopt more aggressive rate cuts. President Trump recently publicly criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell as a "stubborn fool" and even threatened to dismiss him and seek a replacement. Powell will deliver a key speech at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting on August 22, and the market is closely watching his stance—if dovish signals are released, U.S. stocks may continue to rise; but if he dampens rate-cut expectations as some analysts warn, interest-rate-sensitive assets may experience a sharp pullback.

It can only be said that as long as Powell's attitude is not overly hawkish, the market may transition smoothly, while a clear dovish signal would exceed expectations. However, Bank of America strategists warn that optimism has already pushed U.S. stocks to high levels, and dovish signals may instead trigger profit-taking under the "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario.

2. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Zelensky is about to visit the U.S., with his core demand being to push the U.S. to expand support under the "Lend-Lease Act," including providing F-16 fighter jets and ATACMS long-range missiles. However, the Trump administration's attitude is contradictory: on one hand, it claims "significant progress" in recent "3-on-3" talks with Putin, while on the other hand, it conveys Russia's ceasefire conditions to Ukraine and Europe—namely, requiring Ukraine to cede the entire Donbas region (which accounts for 20% of Ukraine's GDP and 25% of its exports) in exchange for Russia's promise to cease hostilities. Trump has also stated that "Ukraine should solve its own problems" and hinted that Europe needs to take on more responsibility. Ukraine, however, insists on "ceasefire first, negotiations later" and explicitly refuses to make concessions on territorial issues. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has recently shown signs of technical escalation, such as Russia shooting down 46 Ukrainian drones in a single day on August 17, indicating significantly increased activity and volatility in the drone sector, which is worth the attention of short-term investors.

$LAOPU GOLD(06181.HK) has experienced significant volatility in the capital market. On June 27, 86% of the company's restricted shares were unlocked, causing its stock price to plummet from HKD 1,100 to HKD 755, wiping out over HKD 50 billion in market value. An even greater test lies ahead—major shareholder Xu Gaoming's 112 million shares will be unlocked for the second time on August 15. To make matters worse, the company's current P/E ratio remains as high as 73x, implying bubble risks, and sustained capital selling pressure is gradually emerging in the market.

$POP MART(09992.HK) faces challenges in IP value management. Official restocking of the LABUBU series has nearly halved the product's resale market price. Additionally, the company was previously criticized by the People's Daily for its blind box model potentially inducing irrational consumption. Affected by these factors, its stock price has retreated from HKD 283 to HKD 239. However, JPMorgan has bucked the trend by raising its target price to HKD 340, primarily due to optimism about its staggering 475% growth in the North American market and 190% explosive potential in Southeast Asia.

Meanwhile, market attention is focused on$MIXUE GROUP(02097.HK) and$MAO GEPING(01318.HK) , which are set to release earnings reports on the 27th. Their performance will serve as key indicators for testing the strength of the consumption recovery. Investors are closely watching whether Mixue Group can sustain its 22% revenue growth and whether MGP can break through the valuation ceiling set for "domestic cosmetics."

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