$Tesla(TSLA.US) increasingly trades on AI, which makes up 60%+ of its valuation, with car sales now a sideshow—this is the core driver of its ~$1.5tn market cap. Even if 2025 full-year deliveries are only 1.64mn units (-8.6% YoY), marking a second straight annual decline, the stock still rocketed, peaking near $500.

The logic is straightforward. The market no longer values it as a traditional automaker, but as an AI story.

Based on Dolphin Research's prior estimates, under a base case Tesla's $1.3tn target mkt cap would see FSD, Robotaxi and Optimus contribute $776.4bn (60%). Hardware such as auto sales and energy storage would account for the remaining 40%. Under a bull case, Robotaxi alone could be worth $0.9–1.0tn, far exceeding the current valuation of the auto biz.

FSD, via subscriptions, becomes a SaaS cash cow, with paid users reaching approx. 58mn by 2035 under the base case. Robotaxi could reshape mobility, and Optimus targets labor substitution; these AI avenues offer far more upside than car manufacturing. In 2026, Cybercab mass production should accelerate scaled Robotaxi ops. With Optimus approaching mass production, the AI valuation anchor would be reinforced further.

Today, Tesla is selling the outlook for autonomy and Optimus. If Optimus or Robotaxi progress beats (e.g., regulatory approvals, order momentum and ramp), the market's anchor should shift faster from 'traditional autos' to 'AI growth', pushing the stock toward the bull-case level ($602).