Policy blitz to spur consumption, boost domestic demand; APP hit by another short attack | Daily News Recap

0120 ｜Dolphin Research Focus:

🐬 Macro / Sector

1. On Jan 20, the State Council Information Office briefed on implementing the Central Economic Work Conference and setting up a solid start to the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030). The NDRC will roll out a 2026–2030 plan to expand domestic demand, targeting both supply and demand, with measures such as a consumer goods trade-in program backed by RMB 62.5bn in ultra-long special treasuries, a national M&A fund, and curbing cut-throat competition to foster a demand-led growth model.

2. The Ministry of Finance released five policies, including a RMB 500bn special guarantee scheme to spur private investment and an extension of interest subsidies on consumer loans (cap RMB 10mn per borrower). Coverage expands to 11 areas including digital, green, and retail, guarantee fees capped at 1%, and improved risk-sharing. In tandem with the NDRC’s demand-expansion plan, the dual tools of interest subsidies and guarantees aim to lower financing costs and crowd in private investment and consumption.

🐬 Stocks

1. $AppLovin(APP.US)

Short-seller Capitalwatch alleged that core shareholders of Nasdaq-listed APP funneled illicit funds from China P2P schemes and Southeast Asia 'pig-butchering' scams into the company, disguising them as legitimate ad revenue via related parties, and that its tech also distributed scam apps. In our view, the report is less forceful than prior attacks by Muddy Waters, yet it can still weigh on sentiment. With software positioning fragile and investors cautious into earnings, positive headlines may not lift shares, while negatives likely pressure the stock near term. See: Applovin：空头开年又整活，这回说了啥？

2. $POP MART(09992.HK)

POP MART repurchased 1.4mn shares on Jan 20 at HK$177.7–181.2 per share, spending approx. HK$251mn, its first buyback in 2024, and jointly launched a MOLLY limited-edition phone with Honor. The buyback responds to a >40% share-price drop over the past five months and signals management’s confidence in valuation; keep an eye on inventory digestion of core SKUs. The stock rose over 9% today.

3. $CTG DUTY-FREE(01880.HK)

A subsidiary of China Tourism Group Duty Free plans to acquire DFS’s Greater China retail biz for up to $395mn, including key assets such as Macau T Galleria, and will raise supporting funds via a directed H-share issuance to an LVMH affiliate, with shares rising alongside. The stock gained nearly 4% in Hong Kong today, and the deal should quickly fill its Macau gap, create network effects with Hainan and Hong Kong, and deepen ties to LVMH’s top luxury supply chain.

🐬 Top Gainers

A-shares: diversified utilities, tobacco, real estate services.

HK: auto retailers; jewelry/toy/stationery retailers; data processing & outsourcing.

US: heavy electrical equipment; silver; port operators.

🐬 Watch Tomorrow

1. NFLX and SCHW will report; Dolphin Research will track and publish analysis.

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