$Microsoft(MSFT.US) Amid the US-Iran conflict over the past two days, my account value actually still went up, all thanks to the mighty Microsoft and the US dollar. Indeed, low price means low risk, high price means high risk. The South Korean stock market is the other extreme. Looking back at oil prices, late last night: 1) Trump planned to escort oil tankers with warships; 2) A Fed official commented that the oil price is considered only a short-term shock and won't affect monetary policy for now. US stocks remain firm, which should be considered a bottom-fishing opportunity in the short term. However, the positions allocated by the discipline rules have been used up. This wave didn't reach the threshold for releasing funds, so I chose to let it pass.
Sigh, as expected, Iran, the little brother, is overstretched. After all, in war, unless you can deliver a massive blitzkrieg to kill the opponent, it will drag into a contest of industrial foundations. This round of pullback is estimated to be limited. If nothing unexpected happens next, the panic phase is temporarily over, trending towards an overall adjustment. Those unfairly sold off will gradually recover.
$Microsoft(MSFT.US) was further impacted by the escalation of the US-Israel airstrike on Iran. During the day, Japanese and South Korean stock markets completely surrendered, falling by 3% and 7% respectively. Oil prices remain high, and stock markets around the world continue to decline. But I'm not panicking at all. Although I admit I'm not mentally strong, thanks to position management, the ammunition in my pocket gives me the confidence to still have plenty of opportunities to bottom-fish. I'm not worried about Microsoft falling below 380 or Google below 280. Instead, I secretly hope QQQ drops to 550, or even 500. Just like Amazon's recent investment in OpenAI, you either invest early or get good terms when the other party is in trouble. Not panicking due to being fully invested or using leverage is the only way to maintain rational analysis of the current market:
1. The Middle East conflict is unclear: The main concerns are its duration and its impact on oil prices, because oil prices directly affect inflation, which in turn impacts financial markets. But I don't recommend everyone constantly refreshing battlefield news, because the messages from both sides are a mix of truth and falsehood, and retail investors simply can't judge. Domestically, they like to cite news disclosed by Iran, making it seem like Iran's retaliation is strong. Western media also have their own political stances, none of which are fully credible. Just watch the oil price. "What others say isn't important, watch what they do."
2. Continue to wait and see, don't rush to bottom-fish: The current market price is far from being that attractive. QQQ's price around 600 is only a 6% retracement from the high of 636. I think risking it for a 6% gain in this market environment presents an extremely asymmetric risk-reward profile, so I choose to pass. Even if a ceasefire happens next week and stocks go up, it's just missing a small opportunity. I hope our Iranian brothers keep up the effort, push oil prices higher, and make things even bigger—the bigger the waves, the more expensive the fish! However, after looking at the analysis of both sides' weapon stockpiles, I think the possibility is limited.
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