Stock Live Trading P188: The Perils of Being Clever

Many people think the sharp drop in Lockheed Martin is because the war ended, but I think this logic is wrong. It has already fallen for 8 consecutive days. If we follow the war logic, wouldn't shorting it be like picking up money? Logically, if everyone went short, it shouldn't be able to fall further because it's all short positions. But it did fall. I really can't figure out why.

Let's review this stock. On the day the US-Iran war started, its night session surged to 750, and then it just kept opening high and closing low. This means the positive news was already fully priced in on the very first day of the war. So now that the war is ending, why can't this be the negative news being fully priced in?

All we know now is that the capital doesn't favor Lockheed Martin. They'd rather use this common sense to dump the stock than give it a little pump to harvest the naive investors. I thought Lockheed Martin was already quite cheap at $600. Back then, many people in the comments section saw me going long and started talking it down. Now Lockheed Martin is really at $530, in just a few short days. Looking at it this way, I really look like a clown. Because Lockheed Martin's volatility is usually very small, its daily fluctuations. But these past few days, it's been falling several percentage points each day. If you had bought put options, you could have made over a hundred times your money.

I bought Boeing and Daikang Industries on a simulated account before. They once fell 20-30 points, and now they've basically recovered all the losses, though I haven't broken even yet. This also shows that as long as you're buying the underlying stock without leverage, it will eventually recover. Lockheed Martin can't be worse than Boeing. Since Boeing can recover, why not Lockheed Martin?

So, deep down, I'm not panicking. The only thing that feels uncomfortable is that everyone else is picking up money elsewhere, while I'm the only one holding onto a solid logic and losing money continuously. Although all I'm losing is time, time itself is life. Being trapped like this is also a waste of capital and life, isn't it?

But since it's fallen to this point, there's really no reason to cut losses. I'll just stubbornly hold onto my precious metals and defense stocks and wait for clear skies. The world can't be peaceful forever. If it really is peaceful forever, then consider it my contribution to the world. Anyway, I don't have much money. I need to think bigger.