Can we still chase the US stock market's post-trading review on Friday, April 24th?
Can we still chase the US stock market's post-trading review rally?
The core is actually just three points.
First, the expectation of Middle East de-escalation leading to a drop in oil prices.
The US and Iran are expected to continue negotiations, the White House extended shipping waivers, and oil prices have come down in the short term.
This is crucial for the market, as it essentially eases inflationary pressure, which is a direct positive for tech stocks.
But risks remain on the other side.
The US military is working on new combat plans, and Israel also has the possibility of resuming fighting.
So this can only be considered a de-escalation, not an end.
Second, expectations for interest rate cuts are heating up.
The market is starting to price in a policy pivot ahead of time, with rate expectations moving down.
Capital naturally flows back to growth and tech stocks.
Third, AI and semiconductors remain the main theme.
DeepSeek is driving an upgrade in model competition.
Coupled with Samsung's production cuts, rising memory prices, and tight materials,
semiconductors are starting to look like they're entering a price increase cycle.
Simply put,
capital is flowing back from safe-haven assets to risk assets.
II. Risk points to note
The Middle East issue is not truly resolved.
If there is a sudden escalation, such as an expanded conflict or supply disruption,
oil prices will rebound, and the market will quickly weaken.
So the nature of the current market is
an uptrend, but with uncertainty present.
III. S&P key levels are most important in the short term.
First resistance above is at 7170.
Next is the 7080 to 7120 range.
Stronger resistance is at 7200.
Support below is at 7100.
Key support is at 7000.
Defensive level is at 6950.
There's a structure to note here.
Now 7100 has become the defensive line for the bulls.
If the index repeatedly attacks 7170 within a short time but fails to break above,
and doesn't close above it with increased volume,
it indicates heavy selling pressure above, with some capital taking profits.
In this case, the higher probability is a pullback first,
retesting the 7100 to 7000 range for a turnover,
and then continuing upward after consolidation.
This kind of pullback is a normal adjustment during an uptrend,
not the end of the trend.
From a trading perspective, you can view it this way:
As long as 7100 holds, the structure remains bullish.
If it breaks below 7000, be cautious of entering an adjustment phase.
IV. Current capital focus
The strongest is still AI computing power.
Followed by semiconductors, where the logic is gradually strengthening.
Autonomous driving is also starting to see catalysts.
V. Stocks to watch today
NVDA
AMD
MU
TSLA
The logic behind this rally is actually quite clear:
falling oil prices, declining rate expectations, plus the AI theme driving it.
But the Middle East variable remains.
The rally can be traded, but the pace must be controlled.
The above is just a personal view and does not constitute investment advice.
$Apple(AAPL.US) $Broadcom(AVGO.US) $AMD(AMD.US) $Amazon(AMZN.US) $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US) $Lumentum(LITE.US) $Tesla(TSLA.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $SPDR S&P 500(SPY.US) $Sandisk(SNDK.US)
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