Prize Contest｜Where will WTI crude oil go by the end of the month, with the Strait of Hormuz still closed?

The US-Iran conflict has entered its 11th week, with most of the Strait of Hormuz still blocked. About 10 million barrels of crude oil are stuck in the waterway daily. WTI crude oil is currently quoted at around $106/barrel, fluctuating violently between $100 and $110 this month. Guess the closing price range on May 30th to share 500 mission coins!

Bullish logic: The risk of negotiation breakdown persists. If the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, global inventories will be depleted by about 8.5 million barrels daily. Domestic US oil prices have risen to $4.48/gallon, and gasoline shortage pressure may push WTI above $115.

Bearish logic: Donald Trump has proposed temporary sanction exemptions in exchange for passage rights. Once implemented, oil prices could plummet by over 10% in a single day. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have opened alternative routes and are ready to supplement the market at any time.

Long positions are betting on the continuation of the Hormuz stalemate and oil prices surging to $115, while short positions are betting on a significant pullback brought by the dawn of negotiations. Which side are you on?

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