
Likes ReceivedAfter the storage sector's big drop and break below support, there probably aren't many KOLs who dare to be bullish anymore. Even the most steadfast holders likely have thoughts of selling.
Meanwhile, investors who suffered huge losses will go online to find those KOLs who preached 'storage is king' and 'storage will always rise'. They'll blame them for causing them to start chasing the storage rally. Especially the Koreans.
The broader market didn't fall; funds flowed out of semiconductors into other sectors.
In recent years, whether it's BTC or any hotly speculated sector, not everyone can make money. So, no matter how good the company or its fundamentals, crowded trades will inevitably swallow the retail investors who enter last (they usually come with leverage).
Let's see the market's latest direction in July. Currently holding positions in storage/giants/software. The old-timers are already making money. Except for Tesla being inexplicable (but we're used to that by now), Microsoft, Google, and Apple are performing normally. Semiconductor and storage profits are pulling back.
Overall position size for the second half isn't planned to exceed 50%. Let's see whether to continue going long on software or go speculate on the application side.
Based on the situation in 2025/2026 over two years, the stock market only has one-sided rallies for 3-5 months; the rest is sideways movement. For example, 2024/9-12, 2025/1-4, 2025/11-2026/3. It's quite normal.
Maintaining the previous view: this year's one-sided rally will probably be fully played out in the three months from April to June. From July to December, volatility will increase. 6300-7600 is the one-sided move; 7600-8000 (assuming) doesn't offer much juice. Mathematically, it's clear there's not much left... The market will eventually return from companies selling shovels to the application side, whether this year or in a few years. So, don't think hardware companies can fly forever. Have you ever heard of companies selling cement, tunnel boring machines, or road rollers getting rich forever in modern society? Once the roads are built, demand shrinks, but highways can charge tolls for life. Simple logic.
Observe next week, gradually become more cautious, concentrate and defend positions at highs. In choppy markets, you can either play the major indices or just rest.
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