$Netflix(NFLX.US)$Microsoft(MSFT.US)Semiconductors have plummeted in the past two days, especially memory and optical components, leading to a bunch of news and debates about whether AI demand is slowing down. I basically don't pay attention to that; it's not very valuable. To verify for myself, if we're talking short-term, after experiencing this wave, I think stocks in memory and optical will enter a period of sideways consolidation for adjustment. A violent rebound and recovery will be difficult. Stocks like Microsoft and Netflix, which are clearly undervalued, should continue to see their stock prices recover and rebound during this period. Actually, META+SanDisk Micron, at least clearly points out one valuable thing: memory trading is already extremely, extremely tight, and tightness means risk. When we trade, it's all about weighing the win rate and the odds based on a margin of safety. So, at this stage, I won't follow the crowd to bottom-fish either. As for whether AI demand is slowing down, personally, I think the trend remains unchanged.
$Microsoft(MSFT.US) The options I bought earlier have nearly doubled in unrealized gains. I'm being a bit greedy and haven't taken profits yet. Recently, two things have caught my attention. One is Meta renting out idle computing power, combined with last night's sharp drop in storage stocks. It's clear that trading in the storage sector is extremely tight; any slight disturbance leads to an immediate plunge. The other is Dazi launching a "rent-to-own" program. From my perspective, this can hardly be seen as positive news. Personally, I think its strong period is over. In the short term, considering capital rotation is inevitable, I'm thinking about whether to add more options on Microsoft 🤔. Looking further ahead, I might need to gradually create a safety cushion in terms of my overall portfolio and cash position.
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