ATFX: Pay attention to the release of the US weekly ADP data for June 20 in the evening.
At 20:15 Beijing time, the US Automatic Data Processing (ADP) company released the weekly change in US ADP employment for the week ending June 20, with the previous value being an increase of 30,750 people and no expected value available yet.
Figure 1, ADP Weekly Data Bar Chart - ATFX
Over the past six months, the US weekly ADP data has gone through three phases. In the first phase, from the week of February 7th to the week of March 21st, the values ranged between 9,000 and 26,000 people, indicating a weak job market. In the second phase, from the week of March 28th to the week of May 2nd, the values ranged between 30,250 and 40,250 people, showing the job market in a state of fluctuation. In the third phase, from the week of May 9th to the present, the values have ranged between 26,500 and 35,700 people, with employment numbers showing a rapid downward trend.
The value for the week of June 6th was 30,750 people, higher than the previous value of 26,500 people, but it still hasn't broken free from the downward trend that started the week of May 9th. The US labor market remains weak, and excessive optimism is not advisable.
Figure 2, US Non-Farm Payrolls Overlaid with Weekly ADP - ATFX
The weekly ADP data series began publication in September 2025, less than a year ago. Overlaying the Non-Farm Payrolls data with the ADP data allows for observation of their resonance. From the above chart, it can be seen that the volatility of the weekly ADP data is significantly stronger than that of the Non-Farm Payrolls. The Non-Farm Payrolls curve showed clear bottoming characteristics in February of this year, but the weekly ADP data for the same period did not show a corresponding resonance. Instead, a relatively clear low point appeared during the week of November 8, 2025. Overall, using weekly ADP data to predict the Non-Farm Payrolls report has relatively low reliability.
The release of weekly ADP data has a two-week delay, with three releases per month. Weekly data is not released when the monthly ADP report is published. The calculation of weekly ADP is based on estimating the week-on-week change in employment within a week using a four-week moving average, which involves subjective components and is not based on objective data collection. When using ADP to analyze US job market performance, it is necessary to compare it horizontally with other labor market indicators to avoid drawing incorrect conclusions.
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