Lenovo Group Ltd Commentator
PostsA nearly spot-on prediction - Review of July 3rd to July 7th
Finally recovering slowly. The feeling of being sick is really terrible; treat yourself to a bowl of ramen after getting better. Last week, the illness was extremely severe, but I didn't forget to leave behind a clever strategy; for now, except for the S&P index failing to break through successfully, everything else has been spot on.
As mentioned before, there was a very high chance of a rebound in Hong Kong stocks in July, and finally, today, a final revenge-style rebound finally appeared. It's a bit of a pity not having caught the last violent surge opportunity today; I took profit on the bull warrants a day too early. However, 24,200 points is now exactly a major resistance level. There's a high probability that a pullback to $Hang Seng Index UBS 8B Bear K.P (60539.HK)$ will occur first at this level, with a defensive position at 24,250. If it pulls back to 24,000 and finds support, there's a chance to rebound again to $Hang Seng Index UBS 89 Bull S.C (54760.HK)$, with a defensive position at 23,820.
Previously, it was clearly mentioned that $Tencent Holdings (00700.HK)$ would lead a rebound in tech stocks $Alibaba(BABA.US) $Alibaba-W (09988.HK)$ $Meituan-W (03690.HK)$ $Xiaomi Group-W (01810.HK)$ $Baidu Group-SW (09888.HK)$, and for now, a full-scale counterattack is underway. However, it's important to note that Tencent is definitely the strongest among them. Besides the possibility of a false breakdown double bottom, there's further optimistic sentiment in the gaming sector. For the others, we need to wait for specific chart pattern setups to determine if a real bottom has been reached. For now, the rebound scenario is still based on oversold conditions and valuation repair.
The new share lock-up period started today, but $Zhipu (02513.HK)$ didn't fall like other semi-new shares in the past; this is indeed a bit unexpected. However, this major rebound in the Hong Kong stock market proves one fact: the more people talk about something, the greater the chance of a reversal. For example, on June 26th, the whole world thought Hong Kong stocks would fall to 18,000 points, and then the market rebounded. This time, everyone was worried about the lock-up period, but instead, a rebound occurred on the very day of the lock-up. However, the basic chart pattern has already been damaged. The only thing is that there is clear support at the important 50-day moving average. Last week, it was also clearly mentioned that besides AI semi-new shares, one must be very careful about a possible reversal in AI-related Hong Kong stocks, including $Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable (06869.HK)$ $Kingboard Laminates (01888.HK)$, etc., whose glory days are over. The former even more confirms a possible topping pattern.
It's the same for US stock trends. $Micron Tech(MU.US) $Sandisk(SNDK.US) $Intel(INTC.US) $Corning(GLW.US) $Bloom Energy(BE.US), etc., are basically all weakening across the board, and it's not just an ordinary pullback. They have basically broken through important key levels again, making the future trend very dangerous. There's an increasing chance that this year, $iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX.US)$ $Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares (SOXL.US)$ $Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM.US)$ have already peaked. Even if there is a rebound later, it would be a normal bear market phase two bounce in the fourth stage. At the same time, mega-cap tech stocks are also not performing ideally. $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Tesla(TSLA.US) $Meta Platforms(META.US) $Microsoft(MSFT.US) are also basically entering a downtrend. Therefore, in this situation, one must be very careful about $Nasdaq 100 Index (.NDX.US)$ possibly entering a third stage at high levels. It absolutely must not break below 29,000 points, otherwise, hedging deployment with $FI 2 ChinaAMC Nasdaq 100 (07522.HK)$ needs to be considered.
Positions and Trades
Both $Hang Seng Index UBS 89 Bull X.C (68034.HK)$ and $Hang Seng Index UBS 83 Bull 9.C (53474.HK)$ were cashed out too early; otherwise, the return from the deployment day would have been a full five times.
The entire gold futures rebound deployment ended the day before yesterday; however, no reverse short position was opened afterwards.
$ChinaAMC Asia High Dividend Equity (03145.HK)$ remains a key defensive ETF holding. The chance of a rebound recently is relatively high because funds are clearly flowing back into some quality traditional economy stocks. Moreover, due to the sharp pullback in the Korean stock market, funds are leaning towards traditional economy stocks in other Asian regions. High-dividend ETFs are generally used as a regular army defensive measure, aiming to slowly collect dividends stably over a long period while maintaining relatively more robust performance than the index. However, backtesting shows it only works effectively with a cycle of three years or more.
Reflection
Haven't talked about Sun Tzu's Art of War in a long time. Recently, due to an opportunity to be a competition mentor again, the organizer mentioned how Sun Tzu's Art of War describes investment and trading. In light of this, I've decided to review the entire Art of War again, discussing it with everyone for the benefit of opening a book. The first sentence of the first chapter of Sun Tzu's Art of War mentions the importance of soldiers, which in trading is capital. The first and most important thing we must do is figure out how to protect our capital as much as possible. The general public mindset is usually about how much money this trade can make for you, but a true general should consider how much risk we can bear without trading, quantifying the loss. The original capital is the ground of life and death, the way of survival.
Deployment
For now, among the US AI sector, the relatively stronger one is $Dell Tech(DELL.US), which Donald Trump explicitly supports. This is also the AI hardware previously mentioned as still having relatively low valuations. In Hong Kong stocks, the counterpart is $Lenovo Group (00992.HK)$. For now, the trends of both are very similar, also known as the powerplay trend sea. On the other hand, the previously mentioned $Moderna(MRNA.US) has already broken through a major key level. Next, there's a high probability it will advance along the EMA10. In Hong Kong stocks, we also need to pay attention to the related sector $ChinaAMC Hang Seng Healthcare (03069.HK)$, which has a chance to surpass AI again and become the strongest sector in the second half of the year.
The copyright of this article belongs to the original author/organization.
The views expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not reflect the stance of the platform. The content is intended for investment reference purposes only and shall not be considered as investment advice. Please contact us if you have any questions or suggestions regarding the content services provided by the platform.
