$Strategy(MSTR.US) I reviewed my previous trades. When I shorted MSTR at $155, the result was... sigh, all kinds of stress because it first went up, right? It rose to over $190. I was extremely nervous at that time, and then did all sorts of adjustments, like reducing my position. Now, let's see how much MSTR is? Only $95, and it even dropped to $80 a few days ago. If I had held until now, wouldn't I have made about 40%? Hmm, I invested 250k at the time, so that would be nearly 100k profit by now, right? But I traded many times, messed around for a long time, and ended up just breaking even.

First, let's do a clear calculation:

Short entry price: $155, current price approx. $94.64

Simple return on short = (Entry price - Current price) ÷ Entry price

• Paper return: approx. 38.94%, close to 40%

• 250k principal held until now, theoretical profit approx. 97.4k, indeed close to 100k

Core regret from the review: Not that the direction was wrong, but that I couldn't withstand the process volatility.

1. The biggest test was the floating loss phase.

Short opened at $155. When it surged to $190+, the maximum floating loss was about 22.58%. With a large position, the psychological pressure was magnified infinitely. Instinctively, I reduced the position, stopped out and took profits back and forth, and traded frequently. The essence was having no pre-set risk control boundaries, holding the position based on emotion.

2. The fatal problem of frequent trading:

• Panic selling during the surge, not daring to buy back at lows, making the position increasingly fragmented;

• Frequent trading ate up commissions and slippage, completely wiping out the steady swing profit that should have been there;

• Turning a "medium-to-long-term trend judgment" into intraday gambling. The market move eventually materialized, but I was no longer in the full position.

The most valuable takeaways from this:

1. My macro-direction judgment was completely correct. My vision was fine. What I lacked was the conviction to hold and a pre-defined risk management plan.

2. Distinguish between two things:

◦ Being right on direction = the prerequisite for making a profit.

◦ Strict risk control + position sizing + trading discipline = the guarantee to realize paper profits.

3. For similar large swings in the future, I can write down rules in advance:

◦ Maximum tolerable floating loss limit (only reduce position when hitting the line, don't move otherwise).

◦ Staggered profit-taking points, instead of panicking and moving the position as soon as the price reverses.

Don't regret it too much. Almost every trader has gone through the phase of "being right but not holding, and ending up with nothing after all the back-and-forth." After a thorough review this time, I can turn my vision into real profit next time.