On the eve of TSMC's earnings report, it raised prices for mature process nodes for the first time in three years! What's the signal?
It is reported that TSMC plans to raise prices for mature process nodes, and many customers have received notifications. The new prices will take effect in January next year.
TrendForce points out that every GPU board requires silicon wafers using mature process nodes around the computing chip to handle power. Pricing power is no longer solely in the hands of cutting-edge processes but has spread throughout the entire manufacturing flow, indirectly raising expectations for TSMC's gross margin.
Source: polymarket. 68-69% still represents a 55% probability bet.
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- TSMC's business model remains very restrained—it only does back-end foundry work and does not design its own chip brands. It only helps other companies manufacture chips, like a "foundry" that only makes clothes based on blueprints without designing its own branded apparel. It does not compete with its customers at all.
- This wisdom of restraint allows it to "eat from a hundred kitchens" over the long term, with each customer feeling secure to hand over their blueprints. This enables a heavy-asset manufacturing industry to achieve an extreme gross margin level of 65%.
As for the just-disclosed June monthly revenue of $14 billion—a record high! Year-on-year growth of 57%, year-to-date growth of 36%. Since TSMC discloses revenue every month, institutions can roughly estimate performance baseline data. So what else can investors focus on in this week's quarterly earnings report?
(1) TSMC's capacity is overwhelmed, orders are spilling over—who will take them on? Focus on: $United Microelectronics(UMC.US) $Amkor Tech(AMKR.US) $Tower Semicon(TSEM.US) $Intel(INTC.US) $Advanced Semiconductor Engineering(ASX.US) . Client customers focus on process yield, customer validation, supply chain integration, capacity utilization, and geographical advantages.
(2) Mature process price hikes → Besides automotive-grade and industrial applications ensuring volume, the proportion of power, connectivity, and RF in AI products is increasing. The foundry chain has already announced price increases; what remains is the pass-through. TrendForce states the industry is brewing a third wave of price hikes from the second half of 2026 to 2027. $Texas Instruments(TXN.US) $STMicroelectronics NV(STM.US) $Astera Labs(ALAB.US) $Credo Tech(CRDO.US) $Navitas Semiconductor(NVTS.US)
$VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH.US) $Direxion Semicon Bull 3X(SOXL.US) $Direxion Semicon Bear 3X(SOXS.US)
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