US Stock Live Trading: Sacrificing the AI God of Stocks, Locking in Profits and Wrapping Up (20260802)

Summary:

The S&P 500 index rose by 1.05% this week, while my real-money portfolio net value fell by 8.57%.

Year-to-date in 2026, the S&P 500 index has risen by 9.41%, and my real-money portfolio net value has risen by 59.59% (starting net value was 2.20, this week's net value is 3.51).

Trades:

Cleared all stock positions.

Holdings:

Cash/U.S. Treasuries 100.0%.

Rounding is applied, and mini-positions and short-term speculative trades below 1% are generally not recorded.

Review:

Following last week's weekly report plan, I'm picking a direction this week. If Walsh doesn't 'taco', I'll clear my positions, lock in profits, and rest for now.

Market: We're at the bull-bear dividing line. Mr. Walsh, what's your move? Bull or bear?

Walsh: or

Market: ...

He didn't raise rates, nor did he cut them. He chose to hold steady with a hawkish tone. Of course, many people expected this result because he really dares not make any reckless moves. U.S. Treasury yields have reached an extreme level, and every time it hits this point, the outcome hasn't been great.

I don't think Walsh's statement counts as 'taco'. His on-the-spot performance looked like he was playing a grand chess game, or perhaps he doesn't know how to play chess at all.

Therefore, I'm somewhat skeptical about the market outlook. It seems his desired script is to say nothing, let the market crash due to violent rate hike pricing, and then step in at the critical moment to cut rates and save the market. One way or another, after the rate cut, the major indices would remain unchanged, and inflation could even be declared eased.

Do you guys think my speculation makes sense? He won't speak again until September. Just endure it; the new official acts like a riddler upon taking office, which is very unfriendly to the market.

---

Since there were so many major events this week in July, besides Walsh's speech, there was also news of Japan and the U.S. rarely joining hands to intervene in the yen. Of course, the U.S. isn't doing it out of kindness, but mainly to save U.S. Treasuries and keep Japan stable as a "lever for the U.S. dollar." If it collapses, U.S. stocks will end up like Korean stocks. The U.S. usually doesn't intervene, so this is the first time in decades. This suggests we may indeed have reached an extreme stage, so everyone should probably reassess their risk appetite.

The second is the release of PCE data. Given Walsh's hawkish stance, whether this data is real or not doesn't matter; the result is "inflation cooling weakens rate hike expectations," so U.S. stocks recovered significantly on Friday. The market is currently very fragile. No matter what Walsh wants to do, he dares not force it. He always slaps you and then gives you a sweet date to coax you.

Another heavyweight news item is that Leopold, the AI stock god, had his fund harvested by Wall Street's old reaper, Citadel. This guy's holdings overlap with mine in sndk lite be, so our net value trends are similar. My highest year-to-date return was 100%. He reportedly used four times leverage + shorting app stocks, so during the main upward phase, his year-to-date return hit over 400%. Unfortunately, when the sharp sell-off happened in July, he chose to hold firm. Even with 100% long positions, I gave back 40% of my profits, so his inability to hold was inevitable.

However, you don't need to sympathize with him. Liquidation doesn't mean going to zero; he still has a fortune worth billions. His fund still has a high year-to-date return of 80%, and he got married over the weekend. Nothing was affected. He's a true genius who can withstand storms. But you are all ordinary people; it's best not to imitate his aggressive strategy. Leverage really kills.

---

This week happens to be the last week of July. I felt ice-cold this month, with significant drawdowns in my account. Someone previously asked me why I didn't exit when xxx clearly topped out, or why I still bought when the xxx K-line didn't look bullish. Here is my unified explanation:

First, this is the first cycle of silicon-based civilization in history. No one has experience on how it will unfold. Considering my profit cushion is particularly thick this year, I decided to hold and see. Of course, looking back, this volatility did exceed my expectations, and the drawdown was larger than during the tariff war.

Second, K-lines are subjective. There's always a rationale for how they are drawn. Most online technical analysts either shoot the arrow first and draw the target later (drawing down if bearish, drawing up if bullish) or engage in hindsight bias (only analyzing what has already happened or covering all possibilities). Their reference value during trading is limited. For example, take the Nasdaq, Nvidia, and TSMC. Looking at these K-lines, do you think they will go up or down next? They could go up, or they could go down. Of course, sideways movement cannot be ruled out, right?

Finally, gains and losses come from the same source. If I relied on K-lines, I probably wouldn't have captured as much of this AI infrastructure bull market. My buying decisions were based on industry development trends and company fundamentals. I thought the price wasn't expensive given the positive outlook, so I bought directly. If the outlook turns negative, the price becomes expensive, so I sell. Those who follow my weekly reports know this has always been my style. It's unfair to praise this strategy when I'm making money but criticize it when I'm getting beaten. You can't have your cake and eat it too~

---

Of course, clearing positions this week doesn't mean I'm planning to close shop for the year. I'll watch the situation and buy back in later. The current market doesn't suit my style.

It's neither a main uptrend nor a pure bear market. It's a K-shaped divergence where opposing forces act as counter-parties. Arguments can be made both ways. For instance, the AI bubble theory: so Apple rises. This week, AI isn't a bubble anymore, so Apple falls. It's all defining short-term narratives based on post-hoc price movements, rather than investing based on value. It's all just a short-term betting game.

Next, I will naturally still focus on technology. Once the market stabilizes, and at least without such violent fluctuations, I will gradually return to the top-tier quality giants.

Earnings reports have been coming out. Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and TSMC are all good. My personal 首选 is TSMC. However, the market basically gives results based on K-lines. If the stock price rose before the earnings report, it falls; if it fell, it rises. Don't believe me? Go check.

Another direction is crypto. Bitcoin looks like it has some odds now. If the cycle theory remains valid, a new cycle is starting soon. If we stick to old methods, it might be two or three months away. Whether to buy spot ETFs or MSTR directly, I haven't figured out the allocation yet. For now, I still lean towards a higher proportion of MSTR.

---

Finally, through Leopold's incident, I've been reflecting on myself. Publicly exposing holdings and trading plans seems to have more harms than benefits. If Wall Street didn't know his leveraged positions and liquidation prices, could they have targeted him so precisely?

The AI stock god shouldn't have sacrificed himself in vain. I need to learn some lessons from this.

Have a good weekend, everyone.