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A hand-controlled life necessity price, plus a man-made interest price, will ochestrate US' economy boom in 2036.

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3% US 2026 GDP—New Policy Floor of AI Era?

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Originally, the market was continuously declining due to liquidity withdrawal caused by the U.S. government shutdown and concerns over supply chain financing surrounding OpenAI. However, now that the U.S. government has reopened and NVIDIA's strong performance has been released, the market still isn't buying it. What exactly is wrong with the U.S. stock market? With only five weeks left in 2025, has it completely turned into garbage time? Is there still hope for AI in 2026? 1. Looking towards 2026, what exactly are Trump's demands? There is one last chance for a rate cut this year—the interest rate meeting on December 10th. From a macro perspective, the current market's short-term nerves seem to be dominated by the prospect of a rate cut...

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Bubble Talk Rising, Will AI Continue as Hottest Bet in 2026?

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Continued tight liquidity has started to affect beneficiaries under ample liquidity, such as Bitcoin, as well as tech growth stocks with weak fundamentals and excessive valuations. But what cause the liquidity shortage abruption? what may ease it? and how to position portfolios under this circumstance?

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U.S. gov. shutdown to trigger a 'dollar shortage'?

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The U.S. federal government has been in a shutdown since October 1st, and it has now been over a month. During this period, although there has been almost no release of federal-level macroeconomic data, the 'G2' meeting between China and the U.S. in South Korea, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, and the AI infrastructure investment frenzy by American tech giants during the earnings season have resonated to create a small peak in the U.S. stock market. However, the core issue the market now faces is whether the realization of these benefits means that all the good news has been priced in, and whether the remaining time in 2025 will be 'junk' time. 1. Powell's 'hawkish' rate cut...

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All become 'money-eating beasts'! Can the giants of the US stock market still take the lead?

Today’s Key News Recap

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0313 ｜Dolphin Research focuses on: 🐬 Macro/Industry 1. The U.S. February CPI exceeded expectations across the board, with year-on-year growth slowing to 2.8%, and the core CPI growth rate at 3.1%, the lowest in four years. This data has somewhat alleviated concerns about stagflation, boosting market sentiment. After two consecutive days of significant declines, U.S. stocks finally rebounded, with the Nasdaq Composite Index closing up 1.22%. 2. There are reports that the Hong Kong Stock Exchange is exploring plans to lower the threshold for investors to purchase certain high-priced stocks in Hong Kong to stimulate trading...

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Alibaba's "AI Super Box" is here, can it disrupt search? Intel welcomes a Chinese CEO to take the helm | Today's important news review

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“Elected” Trump? This wave of American citizens is the first to be sacrificed, used for federal deleveraging and industrial return. $Tesla(TSLA.US) $NASDAQ Composite Index(.IXIC.US) $iShares Semiconductor ETF(SOXX.US)Dolphin Research mentioned earlier that Trump's economic governance philosophy (see the link below).But the order of this philosophy is very important.And Trump, in practice, is clearly not about cutting taxes first and then raising tariffs. This is actually the familiar concept of &#34;breaking before establishing&#34; from the past two years domestically. In this process of &#34;breaking before establishing,&#34; the interests of ordinary citizens are the first to be sacrificed.Raising tariffs is indeed a way to protect domestic vulnerable industries, aimed at promoting industrial return. However, in reality, the cost of raising tariffs is not only borne by exporters; in the case where the U.S. cannot quickly replace domestic production capacity and user demand still exists, the end consumers need to bear part of the product premium brought by tariffs.Moreover, from the perspective of Trump's first month in office, the so-called government cost reduction and efficiency improvement, and expenditure reduction, have not been reflected in the federal deficit for February—In January, the U.S. fiscal deficit, including interest costs, was nearly $130 billion, while excluding interest payments, it still stood at a deficit of $49 billion. (PS Currently, there are only some signs of a slowdown in federal hiring in the new employment structure for February.)Additionally, as it aims to make tax cuts permanent, the places where fiscal revenue can increase are very limited, while fiscal expenditure is very necessary; thus, the U.S. debt balance can only control the slope of its increase, and the upward trend is absolutely certain. Historically, during peacetime in the U.S., there has been basically no reduction in the absolute value of fiscal expenditure.From the current results, in the detailed expenditure structure of the budget, Trump has chosen interest payments (which account for 13% of total federal expenditures) as the main operational target.The newly appointed Treasury Secretary does not agree with Yellen's approach of issuing short-term debt as a stopgap, and currently, the proportion of short-term debt in the U.S. is too high; after maturity, if it is replaced with long-term debt to extend its life, the yield on long-term debt will become very important.Raising tariffs may fuel short-term inflation, but after long-term growth becomes uncertain, the yield on long-term debt can drop, even leading to an inverted yield curve.In this process, ordinary American citizens will bear part of the cost of raising tariffs, leading to a relative decline in purchasing power, but once the yield on long-term debt decreases, the government's cost of borrowing long-term funds will also decrease.To some extent, this can be understood as a reversal of the helicopter money during the pandemic, where the government concentrated on absorbing private leverage; now it is doing the opposite: residents are starting to become the force-bearing units for government deleveraging, and what was originally absorbed must be partially expelled.Throughout the process, there is also an effort to maintain the relative bargaining power of enterprises compared to residents, or to protect the main body of employment.But the key issue here is that expectation management is a super significant behavioral economics concept; it is hard to say that once residents' expectations worsen, they will directly enter a state of precautionary savings.However, with such a significant policy shift, from the perspective of the stock market, facing this level of uncertainty in policy upheaval, the only thing funds can do is to run away first; after all, valuations were too high to begin with, and once they start running, there is no hesitation, just swift action.Therefore, this wave of decline in the U.S. stock market can initially look favorably at previously unattainable high-quality companies, but there is no need to rush to bottom-fish; it is better to first observe the changes in the rhetoric of Trump and the Treasury Secretary. <figure class="image"></figure><a href="https://longportapp.cn/zh-CN/topics/27779831">https://longportapp.cn/zh-CN/topics/27779831</a>

如何理解这轮川普关税大锤？ - LongPort

Tesla

NDAQ

The Fed's &#34;hawkish&#34; rate cut drama has finally arrived.Interest rates were cut by 25 basis points, bringing the policy rate to 4.25-4.5%.But in the new economic projections, next year's economic forecast numbers were comprehensively revised upwards.The policy rate expectations were directly lowered by 50 basis points, implying only two rate cuts next year (most likely ending by Q1).Originally, the market thought that after Q1, rate cut decisions would enter a hard mode, but at least one more cut was still possible.This guidance is effectively 25 basis points less than market expectations.The stock market rally brought by Trump's election, from traditional industries to small-cap stocks, then back to the Nasdaq's catch-up rally, followed by the frenzy over newly launched large models and ASICs.After this round of catch-up, the U.S. stock market is likely to consolidate, waiting for the next quarter's earnings.

Nasdaq

Trump is back. Let's talk about the possible impact on domestic industries and tax reduction policies.a. For current tech giants (except $Tesla(TSLA.US)), it's short-term bearish but may turn neutral in the long run. These tech giants essentially achieved their commercial imperialism under the globalist umbrella woven by the Democrats. Trump's return to American nativism isn't favorable for them. Fortunately, these tech giants' business moats allow them to grow independently without relying on their home country's protection, so the pressure isn't too severe.b. However, domestic corporate tax cuts combined with interest rate reductions are actually beneficial for tech giants' EPS.So when offsetting both directions, it feels short-term neutral-to-bearish, long-term neutral-to-bullish. $NASDAQ Composite Index(.IXIC.US) c. For traditional industries, whether it's defense (Republican defense spending is generally high) or traditional energy (reducing green energy subsidies, not prematurely accelerating green energy penetration), it's clearly bullish for Dow Jones-represented traditional sectors. $ProShares Ultra Dow30 ETF(DDM.US)

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STECH

00HSI

Countdown to the U.S. election, the answer will be revealed on the 6th if there are no abnormalities, while the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting will be held on the 7th. The National People's Congress Standing Committee meeting will conclude at 8 AM Beijing time. The earnings season for U.S. stocks has just passed its peak, and this week is packed with macro events. Where exactly is the market trading now, and how should we view the future? This article aims to outline the current situation from the perspective of considering responses to different scenarios, rather than making predictions. The first question is to take a look at market trading: 1. U.S. economic data is &#34;slightly cool.&#34; Last week, in addition to the earnings reports from the giants...

Hang Seng TECH Index

SPDR S&P 500

Hang Seng Index

Will the AI infrastructure frenzy backfire, and is the Trump trade coming to an end?

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WEBL

.DJI

As the first interest rate cut by the U.S. dollar entering the post-pandemic era of rate cuts, this rate cut can be described as both &#34;big&#34; and &#34;hawkish.&#34;The &#34;big&#34; lies in the fact that the first rate cut directly slashed 50 basis points, which was indeed unexpected compared to market expectations; the &#34;hawkish&#34; aspect was conveyed during the conference call and the dot plot, indicating that this 50-basis-point cut should not be linearly extrapolated, and future decisions will still be data-driven. This 50-basis-point cut was merely to demonstrate the Federal Reserve's determination to protect the economy.An interesting point was when several reporters repeatedly asked Powell whether this was a &#34;catch-up&#34; rate cut. Powell emphasized that, given the relatively good data on inflation and consumption, the large rate cut was more focused on being a forward-looking move. However, he also admitted that if the July employment data had been known earlier, a rate cut might indeed have been implemented at the previous meeting on July 31.From Dolphin Research's perspective, this illustrates two points:a. Among the various economic data, the current unemployment rate and new employment figures are the real core data, as subsequent CPI and PPI reports did not raise any red flags for the Federal Reserve.b. The dot plot released by the Federal Reserve to some extent only reflects the Fed's wishes and guides the market to trade on these wishes, but it does not mean this path will necessarily materialize.From the revisions in this economic forecast, it can be seen that among the root variables of the economy, the most significantly revised was the unemployment rate. The 大幅下修的政策利率预期 is merely a result of this root variable.Therefore, in the coming period, a key tracking point for the expected rate cut 幅度 will be the labor market: What is the labor participation rate? How much has labor supply increased? How much has job demand decreased? How much has the unemployment rate increased, and is it within the &#34;controllable&#34; range below 4.5%?Especially given the 惯性下修 in 每次新增非农就业， it’s prudent to build in some 保险 upfront. Based on the downward adjustments over the past few months, some decline should already be factored in. At least, this is how Powell indicated the Federal Reserve would approach the data.Furthermore, Dolphin Research is not overly concerned about this hawkish rate cut path guidance. The key still lies in the employment data, particularly if the weakening is primarily due to an oversupply from increased immigrant inflows rather than a decline in corporate job demand. In that case, the economy may not be as weak as feared.

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Dow Jones Industrial Average

Microsoft is reportedly considering launching a new software suite powered by artificial intelligence.

Founders of the acquired AI agent social platform Moltbook will officially join Meta on March 16.

Micron Completes Acquisition of PSMC's Tonglu Plant and Plans Expansion

Podean acquires Ad Advance, bringing advanced analytics to Australia's Amazon advertising ecosystem

Injunction against AI company Perplexity takes effect on March 16, a case won by Amazon

Deadline for Tesla Full Self-Driving (FSD) license transfer eligibility

NVIDIA GTC Focuses on Cloud Computing Equipment Leasing

GTC 2026 Kicks Off with Market Focus on NVIDIA's Progress in CPO Optical Interconnect Technology

Tech giants face local backlash in the US over massive data center construction for AI computing power

NVIDIA GTC 2026 Conference Begins, Focusing on the Next Wave of AI

AMD expected to launch next-generation Zen 6 architecture CPUs and AI-related products in 2026

Google and YouTube host sessions on branding and AI innovation at SXSW 2026

The US Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision, potentially impacting the cryptocurrency market

Finnish media reports Tesla involved in a customer payment dispute

AMD to Participate in OCP Global Summit 2026 as a Diamond Sponsor

Airbnb Completes $2.5B Bond Issuance for Refinancing

Shares of Nebius, a cloud provider backed by NVIDIA, surge

Palantir Unveils Maven Intelligent System

Meta Announces Plans to Terminate End-to-End Encrypted Chat Support for Instagram After May 8, 2026

Microsoft will host its AI Tour event in Shanghai, China on April 21

bioAffinity Tech

Firefly Neuroscience

Silvaco

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ONEQ

S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are dipping as investors prepare for significant economic data, including the PCE price index, which is the Fed's preferred inflation measure. Additionally, a temporary U.S. waiver may allow the purchase of 19 million barrels of Russian crude already at sea. Reports indicate that Meta Platforms might postpone the launch of a new AI model.

- Investors are preparing for significant economic data releases, particularly the PCE price index, which is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure.  
- A temporary waiver in the U.S. could enable the introduction of approximately 19 million barrels of crude oil back into the market from Russian cargo that is already at sea.  
- Additionally, there are indications that Meta Platforms might postpone the release of a new AI model.

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S&P 500, Nasdaq futures dip ahead of PCE watch day: What's moving ADBE, NVDA, META, HIMX before the bell

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The NASDAQ-100 index decline widened to 0.5%, with the NASDAQ down 0.8%

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U.S. stock futures rose, with NASDAQ futures up 0.41%, Dow futures up 0.41%, and S&P 500 futures up 0.40%

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.DJU

The White House is initiating investigations into unfair trade practices involving several countries, following President Trump's recent 10% tariff on certain goods. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer announced probes into tax policies of countries including China, the EU, and India under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. The investigations aim to uncover unfair trading practices and are expected to conclude by July 24. Additionally, another investigation will address imports made via forced labor, covering around 66 countries.

- The White House is initiating investigations into alleged unfair trade practices affecting several countries, following a 10 percent tariff imposed by President Trump.  
- U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer stated that probes would focus on the tax policies of various nations and are being launched under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, which allows for tariffs against discriminatory practices.  
- The investigations aim to conclude before the expiration of the tariffs on July 24, with public comments accepted from March 17 to April 15, and a hearing scheduled around May 5.

Thehill

Dow Jones Utility Average

White House launching unfair trade investigations, rebuilding tariff pressure

.DJUS

- A survey indicates that U.S. consumer confidence declined in early March due to rising gasoline prices from the Middle East conflict.  
- The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index fell from 56.6 in February to 55.5, while economists had predicted a drop to 55.0.  
- The survey, conducted between February 17 and March 9, revealed a 7.5% drop in financial expectations across all demographics following the onset of military action with Iran, with gasoline prices increasing over 21% to $3.63 per gallon.

Reuters

Dow Jones U.S. Index

US consumer sentiment falls in early March as Middle East war weighs

On Friday (March 13), the usage scale of the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase agreement (RRP) was USD 427 million (4 counterparties), compared to USD 137 million on the previous trading day

The Federal Reserve plans to lower the capital reserve requirements for large banks to 2019 levels in response to geopolitical shocks and deteriorating financing conditions. Vice Chair Michelle Bowman stated that capital requirements will be slightly reduced, potentially allowing banks to use excess capital for lending or stock buybacks. Although the industry has opposed increasing capital reserve buffers, critics warn against weakening the protective mechanisms established after the financial crisis

- The Federal Reserve plans to ease capital reserve requirements for large banks amid market instability due to geopolitical shocks and deteriorating financing conditions.  
- Vice Chair Michelle Bowman indicated that the revised draft will slightly lower capital requirements to levels closer to 2019, allowing banks with excess capital to utilize funds for credit or stock buybacks.  
- Critics, including Senator Elizabeth Warren, caution that this plan undermines previous protections established to enhance the resilience of the banking system, which were implemented in response to the 2007-2009 financial crisis.

腾讯新闻 - 财经

The Middle East conflict causes market unease, and the Federal Reserve plans to lower the capital reserve requirements for large banks to 2019 levels

U.S. stock futures rebounded slightly, with S&P 500 futures up 0.4% and Nasdaq futures up 0.3%

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