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0712 Dolphin's Key Focus:
🐬 Macro/Industry
1. China's M2 and social financing in June exceeded expectations: M2 money supply reached CNY 28.73 trillion, a YoY growth of 11.3%, a decrease compared to the previous period; the stock of social financing at the end of June was CNY 36.545 trillion, a YoY growth of 9%; RMB loans increased by CNY 15.73 trillion in the first half of the year, with a YoY increase of CNY 2.02 trillion. After experiencing a slowdown in growth in April and May, financial data rebounded in June, releasing some positive signals.
Apart from the continued recovery of corporate loans, the real surprise came from the increase in new loans for residential mortgages, especially long-term loans. However, if we consider the increase in precautionary savings in the same month (CNY 2.7 trillion, which is quite substantial), it suggests a higher level of savings. However, during the same period, the sales of new homes continued to decline significantly. It is worth considering the possibility that residents may be using business loans to replace higher-interest-rate mortgages. In addition, in terms of the structural changes in social financing and RMB loans: the incremental increase in government bonds remained relatively small, while corporate loans increased significantly during the same period. This implies that the mode of credit allocation has shifted from government bond-led large-scale infrastructure projects to long-term strategic industries and major projects led by state-owned enterprises and the industrial chain.
2. The US will release CPI data for June at 8:30 p.m. tonight. This is an important data point before the Fed's July meeting. The market expects US CPI for June to further slow down to 3.1%. Previously, the important component of commodity inflation, used cars, has returned to a downward trend. At the same time, due to the continuous decline in prices of oil, food, and other commodities, overall inflationary pressures have actually improved marginally. In the short term, this is beneficial for the pricing anchor of equity and the downward trend of the 10-year risk-free interest rate. However, beyond short-term expectations, Dolphin tends to believe that fundamental issues regarding wage inflation and stagnant service consumption still exist, which may put pressure on the adjustment of US stocks.
🐬 Individual Stocks
1. $Microsoft(MSFT.US)
The $6.9 billion acquisition of Activision Blizzard by Microsoft has been approved by a US court, defeating the efforts of the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) to block the largest-ever acquisition in the gaming industry. The completion of the Activision Blizzard acquisition is mainly driven by Microsoft's ability to upgrade Blizzard games into cloud gaming, which is more beneficial for Blizzard. However, Microsoft's current stock price has already factored in many unconfirmed and unverified AI-driven performance enhancements, so there is limited upside potential. Stimulated by this news, Activision Blizzard's stock price rose by 10.02% on Tuesday.
2. $Focus Media(002027.SZ) Last night, the performance forecast for the first half of this year was released: the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be between 2.15 billion and 2.28 billion, a year-on-year increase of 53.2% to 62.5%. Looking at the second quarter alone, net profit is expected to increase by 155% to 170% year-on-year. Despite the sluggish consumer demand, the revenue has recovered steadily, but the actual market expectations are even lower. The actual profit slightly exceeded expectations, and it is not difficult for the subsequent valuation of the company to stabilize at 100 billion. For detailed analysis, please refer to Dolphin's article tonight.
🐬 Leading Sectors
Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges: Exploration and production of fossil fuels, other mining, downstream energy;
Hong Kong Stock Exchange: Plastic products, computer hardware and storage, marketing and printing services;
US Stock Exchange: Manufacturing of automotive and marine electronics, gaming software, real estate investment and services.
🐬 Focus for Tomorrow
1. China's trade balance, China's trade balance in US dollars;
2. US PPI (Producer Price Index) annual rate, US PPI monthly rate;
3. Federal Reserve releases Beige Book on economic conditions.
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