EdmundK

50% tariffs + retaliation = classic stagflation setup. Futures down makes sense. This isn’t “buy the dip” — it’s risk-off. Even with BTC at $75K, equities like US Strategy still have downside if Tuesday talks fail.

$Walmart(WMT.US) is the canary. If Walmart can’t grow sales, the consumer is done. $Moderna(MRNA.US)’s -177% round trip in 48hrs shows how fragile news-driven rallies are. And bonds erasing buyback relief means no Fed put.

$Moderna(MRNA.US) +177% is validation that mRNA isn’t just for COVID. First Phase 3 cancer win with $Merck(MRK.US) opens a massive new market. And SK Hynix buying back means memory demand is real - $Sandisk(SNDK.US) and $Micron Tech(MU.US) catching that bid makes sense.

When bonds set the price, risk assets suffer. $Micron Tech(MU.US) losing $1K fast shows how fragile the chip rally was. STI off records + banks tied to yields means SG isn’t immune if rates keep climbing.

This is headline driven. US-Iran tensions are real risk, and if they escalate, no sector escapes. Druckenmiller selling $Micron Tech(MU.US) right before tells you smart money isn’t buying the Musk tweet as a long term thesis.

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) trimming OpenAI exposure shows capital discipline, not weakness. The $21B SpaceX bet diversifies into space + AI. Meanwhile SG exports +24.2% proves the AI chip cycle is still feeding real demand globally.

Reddit’s S&P 500 addition validates the social + AI data story. $Citigroup(C.US)09.SG and $9CI.SG profits show SG property is back. PE circling $WORKDAY and Ackman in $Netflix(NFLX.US) signals confidence is returning.

This is euphoria. 10Y at 2007 highs means funding AI gets expensive fast. $Cisco(CSCO.US) selling on a beat + Tencent capex scaring China shows the theme is crowded and fragile to any disappointment.

$Alphabet(GOOGL.US) is buying growth with debt and burning cash. $205B capex is unsustainable if ROI lags. Market rewarded infra suppliers but punished the spender - classic late-cycle rotation and margin pressure ahead.

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) turning compute into a $500B+ financed asset class is massive. TSMC strength, Intel raising, and SG GDP upgrades all confirm AI capex is the new supercycle driving growth.

SG’s *$SentinelOne(S.US)TI.SG* hitting 9 straight weekly gains with *$DBS.D05.SG* leading shows real strength. US jobs miss fuels Fed cut bets, pushing *$SentinelOne(S.US)&P 500(.SPX.US)* to records. Berkshire pausing sales adds confidence.

DBS, SGX, Venture, OCBC, UOB all beating and pushing STI to fresh highs shows real earnings power, not just beta. Banks printing, exchange volumes up, tech manufacturing solid — that’s a clean sweep. SpaceX absorbing a $100B insider unlock and still rising on retail call buying proves risk appetite isn’t dead. Even with storage names selling off and oil reversing, money is rotating into quality cash flows.

DBS crossing S$6B in total income with record profit shows Singapore banks are still printing in a high-rate world. That’s real cash flow, no capex drama. SpaceX getting hit 13% after beating revenue is just public markets learning to price heavy AI spend. Musk locking compute to Nvidia means the AI arms race is accelerating, not slowing. Gold +4% is the hedge, and DBS is the steady compounder in the mix.