levon9111

ARM up 16% in one day. NVIDIA chose ARM architecture for RTX Spark. Apple uses ARM. Qualcomm uses ARM. Every AI chip that runs ARM cores pays ARM a royalty. The more AI chips ship, the more ARM makes. Simple math 💪🏦

Held Micron from $500. Sold at $800 to "lock in profits." MU now crossing $1,000. This is fine 🐶🔥 I understand the thesis, I just didn't have the conviction to ride it. Skill issue (mine).

$1.28 trillion global memory market by 2027 from TrendForce. Memory sector was around $180B at the 2023 trough. Even discounting heavily for analyst optimism, the direction is clear: AI compute demand for HBM is real and growing faster than prior estimates 📊

Bought Micron, missed the SanDisk HBF announcement. Always one step behind in the memory trade 😮‍💨 at least my MU position is doing something.

Today's +19% move in Micron is not the story. The story is what's underneath it, and I think most people are still framing this wrong.Let me start with what actually happened. UBS analyst Timothy Arcu...

$Micron Tech(MU.US) Anthropic's explosive growth further confirms the structural shortage story in AI memory. Near-term (2026–2027), this gives strong support to HBM pricing and memory makers' margins. Micron's CBO Sumit Sadana also said publicly that even by 2028, supply still cannot meet customer demand.

Morgan Stanley and JPM have already started re-rating Micron on PE instead of PB — still cautious lah, they will look at LTA terms like customer default clauses to judge contract quality.

This is quite similar to the re-rating TSMC went through previously. All this supports our earlier call on the memory sector re-rate — high chance that by Q4 this year or Q1 next year, we'll see a re-rating to 15x PE or higher.

MU and SNDK Hold Firm While Semis Broadly Sell Off

Both Micron and Western Digital's flash storage unit (SNDK) closed up around 3% today. That's worth paying attention to when the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has fallen close to 10% over the past week.

I've been tracking MU closely for a while now. The HBM story is the core thesis: demand for high bandwidth memory in AI training and inference is structural. It's not going away because the macro backdrop gets choppy. When a stock holds up on a week like this, that's often the market telling you the demand picture hasn't changed.

Valuation on MU still looks reasonable relative to the cycle and relative to where HBM pricing is heading. I'm not adding here at current levels, but I'm certainly not trimming either. The long-term setup for quality memory names in an AI infrastructure build-out remains one of the more straightforward compounding setups in the semiconductor space.

Ten years from now, the world will need significantly more advanced memory than it does today. That thesis doesn't change based on a seven-session PHLX drawdown.

🚨 Seagate CEO just said the quiet part out loud and the entire memory sector crashed.He said building new factories would "take too long." MU -5.95%. STX -6.87%. WDC -4.84%. SNDK -5.30%. 📉📉📉📉Let that sink in. The stocks didn't crash because demand is weak. They crashed because demand is SO strong that supply literally cannot keep up. That's not a bear market signal. That's a capacity crisis.Add Samsung's looming 18-day strike. Add China choosing not to buy Nvidia H200s (memory attaches to every GPU order). Three separate pressure points hit the same sector on the same day.I'm watching MU. Down nearly 6% but the AI memory thesis hasn't changed. If anything this pullback is telling you the infrastructure build-out is real, not fake. 🧠Buying here or waiting? Drop your take. 🔥

SanDisk -11%, Micron -10% ($724), WDC -8% ($476), QCOM -7%. The Korea memory complex just got smoked in one session.

🔥 Why it dumped:

1. Hot US inflation print → bond yields up → growth multiples compress

2. Korean policy chief floated a ” citizen dividend“ tax on chip excess profits 👀

3. Google TurboQuant headlines → ” do we need less memory for AI?“

4. Profit-taking — SNDK was +552% YTD, WDC +200%, MU +179% going in

💭 My read: This is a ROTATION, not a thesis break. HBM is still SOLD OUT for 2026. But after a run like that, you don‘t need bad news — you need ANY excuse.

I think many people are being a bit emotional about $Unitedhealth(UNH.US) right now. The health insurance industry is inherently cyclical and policy-sensitive; when profit margins are squeezed, the stock price will inevitably be revalued.

Observing $ASML(ASML.US) , the market logic seems increasingly simple: an AI computing power arms race → locked-in demand for EUV equipment?

$ASML(ASML.US) still viewed as monopoly-level AI infrastructure play, but export controls and order timing make sentiment mixed.

Peter Thiel's fund buying AAPL as a contrarian AI play. Are the smart money seeing something the crowd is missing?

Gold first hit $2,000. It took over a decade from 2009 to 2022 to reach that milestone. Then, it took roughly 500 days to climb from $2,000 to $3,000, another 200-plus days from $3,000 to $4,000, and just over 100 days from $4,000 to $5,000.

What's driving these increasingly rapid surges? Simply put, it's a mix of fear-driven narratives and the illusion of gold as a safe-haven asset, drawing a crowded rush into the market. And when bullish positions get this overcrowded, it creates the perfect hunting ground for the bears.

Regarding this current correction, whether a rebound happens or not, you must remember: at these levels—$5,000 gold and $100 silver—prices are perched at a Mount Everest-like peak. Ordinary folks should not overestimate their intelligence and attempt to buy the dip. After gold and silver experienced that historic plunge, watching so many charge back in headlong... I get the feeling that history really does repeat itself in waves. Human intelligence in the investment markets hasn't improved much over the years, has it?

$SPDR Gold Shares(GLD.US) $iShares Silver Tr(SLV.US) $Pro Ultr Silver(AGQ.US) $GLD SG(GSD.SG) $Pro Ultrshrt Silver(ZSL.US)

ASML depends on long-term chip capex, MU depends on memory cycles, and INTC depends on execution. Same sector, completely different risks.

COIN, Circle, and even BitMine trade more like leveraged crypto exposure than actual businesses. If Bitcoin stabilizes, these could bounce fast — but timing them feels brutal.

DBS up modestly today ahead of Feb 9 earnings — cautious optimism among dividend hunters.

NFLX Q4 beat but stock didn’t run—insiders selling. Bullish or bearish continuation? What’s the narrative here?

$Coreweave(CRWV.US) Has 104 hit the bottom?

$Coinbase(COIN.US) Even with product expansion, share price weakness shows broader crypto market skepticism; is the growth narrative priced in or still unproven?

Ready to see financial reports. Legs are shaking...$Tesla(TSLA.US) $ASML(ASML.US) $Meta Platforms(META.US)

ASML reports earnings this week, the guide for 2026 will be EVERYTHING

$Apple(AAPL.US) The China comeback story is positive, but the regulatory and tariff overhangs keep a lid on the multiple