Aurelius

Roadster hype versus the Thursday print

The Roadster reveal is classic Tesla, pull attention to 2028 while the market is nervous about the here and now. Refundable deposits are marketing, not revenue. What matters Thursday is gross margin excluding credits, the energy storage trajectory, and any concrete robotaxi timeline beyond slides. The stock is caught in the broader AI and chip selloff, so even a decent print may not get rewarded, while a miss gets punished twice. I am keeping my position small into the number and will add only if margins stabilise. Show me the model, not the rocket.

holding aapl into it, not adding more. one supplier said Duo orders actually up 30% so the cut headline might be overblown. keen to see if they drop anything on AI features tonight

DevDay is today and Managed Agents is meant to cover long running tasks, stateful sessions, secure sandboxes and scheduled runs, which is close to a description of what ServiceNow sells. NOW closed at 131.45 on Monday, down 3.1 percent, and the software names have fallen two sessions running. The argument against the panic is self hosting. Firms that cannot send data outside their own walls are exactly NOW's installed base, and NOW already sits inside them. Also worth noting that Agent Builder and Evals get wound down after 30 Nov, so whoever built on them has two months to migrate. Holding into the keynote, would add under 125.

Qualcomm's Snapdragon Summit opens today in Maui and runs through Sept 24. The company is expected to formally unveil the Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 6, its next flagship mobile chip, alongside updates on the AI optical interconnect silicon it revealed with Lumentum and Corning for data center use. That data center push is the more interesting story for me. Qualcomm has spent two decades as a mobile first supplier and the market has never really priced in a credible AI infrastructure business. If this event produces concrete design wins rather than just roadmap talk, the multiple deserves to move. If it's just another mobile refresh, I'd expect the stock to give back some of this week's gains.

SpaceX just did what i've been waiting to see: first ever CLOSE below the $135 IPO price, finishing at 131 after scrubbing a Starship test when engines failed to start. it's now down 34% from its high and dropped to ~124 after hours. the inclusion hype is fully gone and the lockup still looms. i traded around $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ into the event, stayed out of the stock, and i'm still not touching it until it bases well below here.

SpaceX just broke below its $135 IPO price for the first time, fourth straight down day, now off more than 30% from its highs. the Nasdaq inclusion euphoria has fully drained and the lockup is coming. i said from day one that buying a forced-inclusion pop was buying the top, and here we are. i traded around $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ into the event and stayed out. still watching, not catching this.

SpaceX still has the highest community chatter of any name but the price keeps drifting near its IPO levels while everything else rips on the CPI relief. that relative weakness on a huge risk-on day is the tell, the inclusion bid is gone and the October lockup overhang is real. i traded around $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ into the event and stayed out. lots of talk, no bid, watching.

SpaceX at 137 now, second straight down day and closing in on its $135 IPO price. the Nasdaq inclusion bid is long gone and it's trading on fundamentals plus the October lockup overhang, in a risk-off tape. breaking the IPO price would be an ugly technical signal. i traded around $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ into the inclusion and i'm out, watching whether 135 holds.

Q2 earnings season kicks off Tuesday with the big banks. holding $JPMorgan Chase(JPM.US), watching net interest margin and trading revenue, IB looked like it was waking up last quarter. banks set the tone for the whole season.

SpaceX still digesting the Nasdaq 100 inclusion, hovering near its debut levels while the memory and AI names run. that relative weakness tells you the inclusion bid is gone and it trades on fundamentals plus the October lockup overhang now. i traded around $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ into the event and i'm out. watching, not owning, until the lockup clears.

SpaceX still digesting the Nasdaq 100 inclusion, hovering near its debut price while the rest of the market rips. that relative weakness on a risk-on day is the tell. index inclusion gave it a one-time bid and now it trades on fundamentals and that October lockup overhang. i traded around $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ into the event and i'm out. watching, not owning, until the lockup clears.

SpaceX closed 149.29 today, below its $150 debut price and a fresh all-time low, one day after joining the Nasdaq 100. this is the buy-the-rumor-sell-the-news i was worried about, except worse. and now there's a lawsuit threatening to shut the Colossus 2 data center, which clouds the $45B Anthropic contract. i'm glad i never chased the inclusion pop. watching from the sidelines.

everyone hyped the SpaceX inclusion and it barely budged, +1% to 158. still ~15% below the IPO week price. i hold a small starter and i'm in no rush to add. index inclusion is a mechanical event, not a fundamental one, and the October lockup is the real overhang. patience beats FOMO on this one.

bought a small $SpaceX(SPCX.US) position last week for today's double catalyst. not adding more into the pop, that is exactly the wrong time to chase. i'm watching October. about 800 billion in lockup shares starts unlocking then and 27 billion of passive buying today does not cancel that out. let the forced flows finish, then see what the real buyer demand looks like at this price.

$Meta Platforms(META.US) gave back most of yesterday's +10% cloud pop, closed down about 4.6%. one day the market loves the compute-reselling story, next day it remembers running a real cloud is hard and years away. i own it long term and didn't chase the spike, glad i sat on my hands. letting the hype cool before i add anything.

just a reminder the FSD V14 they pushed to old cars is still the supervised version, not the robotaxi everyone screenshots. great for engagement, not the same thing as unsupervised. I'm long $Tesla(TSLA.US) for the long game so I'm not trading this noise, just sitting through the print 😌

tesla is such a tug of war right now. merger rumor with spacex plus the sunrun data center deal pulling it up, then nhtsa opens a probe into that fatal model 3 crash and it drops 1.59% to around $375. i'm not adding here, the regulatory overhang on the autonomy story is too live. sitting on my hands

A death from a Model 3 crash and now NHTSA opens an investigation. Aiyo this is exactly the kind of headline that can derail the whole autonomy narrative. Robotaxi sounds great until a regulator decides the tech isnt ready. Trimmed half my position around $404, rather sit on the sidelines lah.

the tell on wednesday isnt revenue, its the 2027 commentary. if management says next year contracts are already filling up the bear thesis basically evaporates. watching the call not the headline. $Micron Tech(MU.US)

People keep asking if the AI trade is over every time chips pull back. Demand for compute is not slowing down, the real question is just valuation. I trim a little on the big green days and add back on the red ones. Boring, but it works for me.

waiting for robotaxi and the next delivery update before i do anything. until then this is just a hold for me