The US September PPI, released this week, rose 6.3% month-over-month, beating the expected 5.3%, and increased 1.3% year-over-year, surpassing the forecast of 0.5%. Citibank now anticipates a rate hike in December, while UBS forecasts a third hike in March.
Rising rate expectations may have already been priced in by the market too early.
September PPI landed a full point above forecast, and two big banks changed their rate calls. At home, September exports came in at double the forecast. Let's dig in 👇💬 With a December hike priced nea...
October CPI rose 3.7% YoY, beating the expected 3.6%, while core CPI hit 2.6%, both marking the highest levels this year.
CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in October surged from 21.6% to 43.7%.
The 5-year US Treasury yield touched its highest level since 2007 before rebounding in the afternoon bond rally.
The market-implied probability of a Fed rate hike this year has exceeded 50%.
Consequently, the US stock market saw volatile trading last night; we expect to see the true trend only later on.
September CPI came in hotter than anyone wanted, and the market's odds of an October hike doubled within the hour. At home, the STI is down about a percent. Let's dig in 👇💬 With an October hike now cl...
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) kept policy unchanged this morning and lowered its core inflation forecast to 1.5-2%, despite all 10 analysts surveyed by Reuters expecting a tightening.
I'm more concerned about the significant volatility in the Singapore stock market right now. Livelihoods are what truly impact the Singapore economy first and foremost, serving as the anchor for the stock market as well.
Three Fed officials backed another rate hike on the same day, hours before tonight's CPI. At home, MAS surprised every analyst by holding. Let's dig in 👇💬 If tonight's CPI runs hot, do you add to rate...
The Singapore Straits Times Index (STI.SG) gave up its morning gains this morning after consecutive declines in the previous week's continuous trading, currently just a few points away from Monday's closing price of 5,415. Among them, DBS Group Holdings (D05.SG) rose by approximately +0.7%, UOB (U11.SG) rose by +0.8%, but OCBC Bank (O39.SG) is currently down by about -0.2%. The rebound only lasted for half an hour because Bank of America will release its earnings report tonight.
What was unexpected is that although the Singapore stock market performed outstandingly in the first half of this year driven by economic growth, the market is simply too small. Risk fluctuations in bank stocks actually drove the broader index to nearly plummet off a cliff.
Memory was the best trade of the AI boom until Monday, when Micron, SanDisk and SK Hynix shed about $108B between them on news that a Chinese rival is closing the technology gap. At home, the early ba...
$SpaceX(SPCX.US) is acquiring an 800MHz license from Grain Management for approximately $8bn; once approved by the FCC, it will roll out Starlink Mobile on the ground.
Other operators are taking a hit, and all telecom companies face the risk of being phased out. Meanwhile, this will further impact related communications, electronic data, and various aspects of data storage businesses.
SpaceX is paying about $8B for nationwide spectrum, and US telcos got repriced in one session: AT&T -9.8%, T-Mobile -13%. At home, the banks are bouncing after last week's 5% STI slide. Let's dig in 👇...
The three major Singaporean bank stocks plunged, following JPMorgan's recommendation for clients to reduce their holdings amid soaring long-term yields and financing costs.
This is a consideration at one level, but looking at it from multiple perspectives, we must also assess whether local economic development and future prospects have sufficient support.
The FT reported OpenAI's annualized revenue is about $20B lower than thought, and the AI chain sold off: Oracle -5.5%, CoreWeave -7.8%, Nvidia -2.9%. At home, the STI closed -3.5% Thursday as all thre...
Citigroup downgraded OCBC to Sell with a $27.50 target price, expecting flat Q3 earnings; the stock fell 5.9% on Wednesday. The Straits Times Index (STI) dropped ~2.5% to around 5,466 this morning, with OCBC falling another 4.4%, UOB 4.8%, and DBS 3.2%.
A sharp decline in the three major bank stocks is not inevitable; I view this as a normal correction and see no need for panic. If capital can withstand it, now is an excellent time to adjust positions.
OCBC is down about 10% in two days after Citi's sell call, and DBS and UOB are sliding with it. Rates aren't helping: the US 10-year just touched 5.35%. Let's dig in 👇💬 Buying the bank dip in 10-share...
Brent crude oil returned above $101 this morning amid Iran's intensified attacks on ships; at least 9 incidents have occurred in the Strait of Hormuz since October.
Instability in the Middle East is expected to persist, but oil price fluctuations haven't halted the decline in gold and precious metal prices.
This requires further observation.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at records again, and SpaceX is reportedly lining up US$40B of debt to buy Nvidia chips. Under the surface it was messier: Seagate sank -9.2% while nuclear power names ri...
Yields on both the 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasuries hit their highest levels in 24 years.
Consecutive record highs in bond yields may pressure future rate hikes.
It remains puzzling why SGX's stock price has been sliding? Despite 11 stocks breaking the traditional lot size of 100 shares, trading activity remained active, yet failed to reverse the downward trend?
SpaceX ripped +7.6% after Morgan Stanley called it one of the cheapest ways to own space and AI, putting Musk back above $1 trillion. Nvidia closed at a record and dragged the Nasdaq to one too. The c...
SGX fell 7.2% to S$20.99 last Friday without any company announcements, and continued to drop about 1% this morning, coinciding with the effective date of its whole-share trading unit adjustment.
What caused SGX's stock price to fall consecutively? Given that trading activity is more active, SGX's stock price should be rising more stably; what led to this decline?
From today you can buy DBS, OCBC, UOB and SGX in lots of 10 instead of 100. SGX itself fell 7% on Friday with no announcement behind it. In the US, September added just 29,000 jobs, October hike odds ...
The Singapore Straits Times Index (STI) dipped slightly by ~0.3% this morning to around 5,651 points. The SGX index fell ~6.2%, acting as the biggest drag on the index, with no company announcements yet explaining this move.
Over the past few weeks, SGX shares have been sliding, and today's plunge could almost be called a freefall. While trading activity in the Singapore stock market—both price and volume—is in an active growth phase, why is the SGX share price dropping so rapidly?
Micron says more than 75% of its 2027 output is already committed, and memory names followed through overnight. The 10-year touched its highest since 2002 before pulling back. At home, SGX is down abo...
Core PCE came in at 3.0%, below the expected 3.3%, pushing the odds of an October rate hike to less than even.
The 10-year Treasury yield rose for a seventh consecutive day.
Gold, silver, and bitcoin all saw continuous declines.
Is the AI bubble continuing to accumulate future risks?
Micron printed a record $54.2B quarter, guided to $61.5B, and the stock closed flat. A cooler PCE pushed October hike odds below a coin flip, but the 10-year still climbed above 5.2%. Let's dig in 👇💬 ...
Bond yields hit a new high, unemployment figures dropped, oil prices fluctuated wildly, inflation was evident, and consumer confidence fell.
On Tuesday, stocks of 300 companies in the S&P 500 declined, with bearish sentiment spreading across the market.
Perhaps there will be further market news tonight.
Fed's Williams saw "no need for urgency" on the next hike, cutting October odds to a coin flip ahead of tonight's PCE. Then Micron reports before dawn Thursday, with Street targets from $1,100 to $2,0...
