LI

My view is that he is waiting for an opportunity, and now it's the process of going through a curve

Revisiting Tesla

Tesla is facing increasingly strong competition in autonomous driving and intelligent robotics

Tesla is now encountering challenges from all aspects, which is the main reason for the recent decline in TSLA stock:

1. Autonomous driving.

A. NVDA, Mercedes-Benz, and other companies jointly launched autonomous driving chips and software

B. UBER and Lyft, along with other companies, have begun launching their own autonomous driving cars and software systems

C. The rapid development of autonomous driving in China. Especially Baidu's launch of autonomous driving in London, Western society.

2. Intelligent robotics

Google Deep-mind and the pioneer in robotics, Boston Dynamics, jointly launched AI-driven intelligent robots and performed demonstrations.

These new types of robots can not only do what humans can do but, more importantly, can also perform actions that humans cannot, such as 360-degree waist, leg, and head rotations, among other highly difficult movements.😇

Musk's response

1. Musk appears unfazed on the surface, claiming he won't lose sleep over it, and even generously wishes these competing companies success.😇👀😰

2. However, it is truly hoped that Musk and Tesla will seriously consider these strong competitors, significantly enhance their competitive capabilities, and achieve breakthrough progress in autonomous driving and intelligent robotics.

3. The promising prospects of autonomous driving and intelligent robotics are the main reasons for Tesla's astonishingly high stock price (Forward P/E as high as 200+). If Tesla loses its advantage in these areas, its stock could have significant downside potential.

Tesla has recently focused on

Pressure zone: 465 478

Support zone: 424 445

These are two support and pressure points,

Ultra-short term: The stock price has just ended a 7-day consecutive decline, with an intraday rebound of nearly 4%, showing strong recovery momentum after an oversold short-term condition. The current price is holding above the 50-day moving average support at $445, and short-term momentum indicators are expected to rebound from low levels. Aggressive investors can bet on a rebound to $465, the 20-day moving average, with a stop-loss set below $440. For short-term considerations, I think this is a good choice, but this is just my personal suggestion. For reference only.

Although there was an intraday rebound yesterday, the medium-term trend remains unclear. The company's recently announced Q4 delivery data (418,000 units) fell short of expectations (422,000 units), and there is uncertainty around the earnings report on January 28. The stock price is currently in a volatile range, with strong technical resistance at $465-478. It is recommended to wait for earnings guidance or a decisive breakout above the $478 resistance level before adding positions. For now, holding existing positions or staying on the sidelines is advisable. Therefore, I think those planning for the long term can wait a bit. I hope everyone minimizes risks, which is very beneficial for themselves.

Looking at Tesla in the long term: The long-term narrative has shifted from pure EV sales to AI and Robotaxi. Despite the core EV business facing declining sales, a year-on-year drop in 2025 deliveries, and intensified competition—along with the fundamental pressure of being overtaken by BYD—and an extremely high P/E ratio (>300), the market has high expectations for the Cybercab production in April 2026 and the rollout of FSD. Long-term investors need to tolerate high volatility and focus on whether the AI business can deliver results to justify the high valuation.

So we need to wait and see if Tesla's AI technology can support this meme stock. There are many unstable factors now, and I don’t recommend going all-in or heavily invested. You can consider starting with short-term positions and gradually observe, which is the best approach. Alternatively, you can build a small initial position, which is also acceptable. I will continue to monitor this meme stock closely.