the SanDisk print is a good lesson. revenue 8.965b up 372%, adjusted EPS 39.25 vs 34.45 expected, gross margin 84.6%, plus a fresh 14b buyback, and it still sold off because next quarter guidance came in at 103 to 108 and pricing did about two thirds of the sequential jump. beat the past, guide the future, market only pays for one of them.
KopiO
KopiOWho to follow
K
options pricing a 13% move on SNDK tonight sia. took a small position at 1040 last week purely for this. if it gaps down 13 i fully deserve it 🤡
K
$OCBC.SG$ reports 1H on friday and DBS goes thursday, so this is the week the whole SG dividend book gets marked. Q1 was 1.97b net profit up 5%, and OCBC has led the three all year. holding both through it, distributions still come whatever NIM does lah
K
genuine question for anyone who follows nand properly. if samsung has 60 to 70 percent of its memory sales under contracts that cap quarterly price falls at 5%, and spot is already turning up into q4, why is the whole complex trading like pricing is collapsing? asking because i cannot decide whether to add or cut before thursday
K
aapl just tagging along with the market today, +1% and nothing new. the broadcom chip deal was two weeks ago already, not fresh news. while everyone chases memory and AI, apple is the sleepy one lah. still my anchor but not adding here, no catalyst
K
DBS finally broke S$70 and going for 1 trillion in wealth AUM by 2030. the dividend keeps me holding through everything, been in $DBS.SG$ since way below 40. this is my CPF-proof blue chip boss 🏦
K
the SanDisk bull case rests entirely on NAND ASPs staying tight. if the Q3 sequential price hikes come in softer than expected this unwinds fast. probably a strong quarter incoming but the whole trade is priced for perfection imo
K
$Roundhill Memory ETF(DRAM.US) is basically a one way bet on memory staying tight and honestly it's been printing. Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung all riding the same wave. feels too easy which is exactly when I start getting nervous 🫠
K
my kopi uncle asked me what DRAM is last month. today he's telling ME to load up on memory ETFs. we are at that stage of the cycle 🤡
K
Google barely moved, the search and cloud combo is the definition of a steady compounder. holding, not watching the daily candle on this one
K
the Fed holds tonight for sure, the dot plot is the real show. if the last cut disappears, mortgage and REIT yields stay stuck where they are. not great for us in SG
K
TSLA just chopping between 400 and 412 while everything else is having a heart attack. boring is kind of nice today honestly
K
a 1625 target on a memory stock still makes me twitch. the upcycle is real but memory always cuts both ways when supply catches up. trimming into strength 🫠
K
2x Micron at a record makes me nervous, not greedy. leverage at the top of a memory cycle is how you give it all back 🫠
K
memory basket at records makes me want to take a little off, not add. cyclical group, parabolic chart, i trim into this 🫠
K
a 1625 target on a memory name is wild to me. memory has always been brutally cyclical, the second supply catches up these margins compress fast. respect the run but i remember 2018 🫠
K
if you believe the memory upcycle but cannot decide between Micron and SanDisk, the basket just solves it for you. simple and clean 📊
K
692% ytd on a memory name makes me nervous not greedy. when a stock goes parabolic like this the reversal is usually just as fast. trimming into strength 🫠
K
memory supercycle thesis intact. one Iran headline up or down doesn't change 12 month demand 💤
K
memory cycle is multi year. I'm not selling a single share over Hormuz noise 💤
K
high beta name in a risk-off tape, of course it swings. nothing new here lah 😮💨
K
not selling a single share. memory cycle is multi year, one Iran headline doesn't end it. holding and going to sleep 💤
K
DRAM up 60% sequential and people still calling it a "cyclical trap". at some point you believe the cycle changed
K
honestly if Siri finally works I don't care whose model runs it, I just want my reminders to stop being dumb 😅