NASDAQ Composite Index

Strategy Report

PHUN

ABTC

DJTWW

.SPX

SOXS

.IXIC

SQQQ

GLDM

SDOW

SGOL

A hand-controlled life necessity price, plus a man-made interest price, will ochestrate US' economy boom in 2036.

Phunware

Trump Media & Tech

American Bitcoin

Trump Media & Tech - CW28

C3.AI

VanEck Semiconductor ETF

iShares Core S&P Mid Cap

S&P 500

Direxion Semicon Bear 3X

iShares Gold Trust

Proshares UltraPro Short QQQ ETF

SPDR Gold Minishares

SPDR Gold Shares

iShares Core S&P Small Cap

ISHRS Russ 1000

iShares Core S&P 500

Invesco QQQ Trust

Pro UltrPro Shrt Dow30

Abrdn Gold ETF Trust

3% US 2026 GDP—New Policy Floor of AI Era?

OpenAI

DXYZ

NVDA

NVDL

07788

07388

NVDY

NVDD

NVDX

NVDQ

Originally, the market was continuously declining due to liquidity withdrawal caused by the U.S. government shutdown and concerns over supply chain financing surrounding OpenAI. However, now that the U.S. government has reopened and NVIDIA's strong performance has been released, the market still isn't buying it. What exactly is wrong with the U.S. stock market? With only five weeks left in 2025, has it completely turned into garbage time? Is there still hope for AI in 2026? 1. Looking towards 2026, what exactly are Trump's demands? There is one last chance for a rate cut this year—the interest rate meeting on December 10th. From a macro perspective, the current market's short-term nerves seem to be dominated by the prospect of a rate cut...

Destiny Tech100

NVIDIA

GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF

XL2CSOPNVDA

XI2CSOPNVDA

YieldMax NVDA Option Income Strategy ETF

Direxion Daily NVDA Bear 1X ETF

T-Rex 2X Long NVIDIA Daily Target ETF

T-Rex 2X Inverse NVIDIA Daily Target ETF

Bubble Talk Rising, Will AI Continue as Hottest Bet in 2026?

GBTC

SBET

Continued tight liquidity has started to affect beneficiaries under ample liquidity, such as Bitcoin, as well as tech growth stocks with weak fundamentals and excessive valuations. But what cause the liquidity shortage abruption? what may ease it? and how to position portfolios under this circumstance?

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust BTC - ETF

Sharplink

Angel Oak Mortgage-Backed Securities ETF

ON Semiconductor

U.S. gov. shutdown to trigger a 'dollar shortage'?

000831

00769

SOXL

SOXX

CP00062

The U.S. federal government has been in a shutdown since October 1st, and it has now been over a month. During this period, although there has been almost no release of federal-level macroeconomic data, the 'G2' meeting between China and the U.S. in South Korea, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, and the AI infrastructure investment frenzy by American tech giants during the earnings season have resonated to create a small peak in the U.S. stock market. However, the core issue the market now faces is whether the realization of these benefits means that all the good news has been priced in, and whether the remaining time in 2025 will be 'junk' time. 1. Powell's 'hawkish' rate cut...

ZGXT

CHINA RAREEARTH

Direxion Semicon Bull 3X

iShares Semiconductor ETF

Semiconductor

All become 'money-eating beasts'! Can the giants of the US stock market still take the lead?

Today’s Key News Recap

INTC

04335

BABA

89988

09988

HBBD

GOOGL

GOOG

0313 ｜Dolphin Research focuses on: 🐬 Macro/Industry 1. The U.S. February CPI exceeded expectations across the board, with year-on-year growth slowing to 2.8%, and the core CPI growth rate at 3.1%, the lowest in four years. This data has somewhat alleviated concerns about stagflation, boosting market sentiment. After two consecutive days of significant declines, U.S. stocks finally rebounded, with the Nasdaq Composite Index closing up 1.22%. 2. There are reports that the Hong Kong Stock Exchange is exploring plans to lower the threshold for investors to purchase certain high-priced stocks in Hong Kong to stimulate trading...

Intel

INTEL-T

Alibaba

BABA-WR

BABA-W

Alibaba HK SDR 5to1

Alphabet

Alphabet - C

Alibaba's "AI Super Box" is here, can it disrupt search? Intel welcomes a Chinese CEO to take the helm | Today's important news review

TSLA

“Elected” Trump? This wave of American citizens is the first to be sacrificed, used for federal deleveraging and industrial return. $Tesla(TSLA.US) $NASDAQ Composite Index(.IXIC.US) $iShares Semiconductor ETF(SOXX.US)Dolphin Research mentioned earlier that Trump's economic governance philosophy (see the link below).But the order of this philosophy is very important.And Trump, in practice, is clearly not about cutting taxes first and then raising tariffs. This is actually the familiar concept of &#34;breaking before establishing&#34; from the past two years domestically. In this process of &#34;breaking before establishing,&#34; the interests of ordinary citizens are the first to be sacrificed.Raising tariffs is indeed a way to protect domestic vulnerable industries, aimed at promoting industrial return. However, in reality, the cost of raising tariffs is not only borne by exporters; in the case where the U.S. cannot quickly replace domestic production capacity and user demand still exists, the end consumers need to bear part of the product premium brought by tariffs.Moreover, from the perspective of Trump's first month in office, the so-called government cost reduction and efficiency improvement, and expenditure reduction, have not been reflected in the federal deficit for February—In January, the U.S. fiscal deficit, including interest costs, was nearly $130 billion, while excluding interest payments, it still stood at a deficit of $49 billion. (PS Currently, there are only some signs of a slowdown in federal hiring in the new employment structure for February.)Additionally, as it aims to make tax cuts permanent, the places where fiscal revenue can increase are very limited, while fiscal expenditure is very necessary; thus, the U.S. debt balance can only control the slope of its increase, and the upward trend is absolutely certain. Historically, during peacetime in the U.S., there has been basically no reduction in the absolute value of fiscal expenditure.From the current results, in the detailed expenditure structure of the budget, Trump has chosen interest payments (which account for 13% of total federal expenditures) as the main operational target.The newly appointed Treasury Secretary does not agree with Yellen's approach of issuing short-term debt as a stopgap, and currently, the proportion of short-term debt in the U.S. is too high; after maturity, if it is replaced with long-term debt to extend its life, the yield on long-term debt will become very important.Raising tariffs may fuel short-term inflation, but after long-term growth becomes uncertain, the yield on long-term debt can drop, even leading to an inverted yield curve.In this process, ordinary American citizens will bear part of the cost of raising tariffs, leading to a relative decline in purchasing power, but once the yield on long-term debt decreases, the government's cost of borrowing long-term funds will also decrease.To some extent, this can be understood as a reversal of the helicopter money during the pandemic, where the government concentrated on absorbing private leverage; now it is doing the opposite: residents are starting to become the force-bearing units for government deleveraging, and what was originally absorbed must be partially expelled.Throughout the process, there is also an effort to maintain the relative bargaining power of enterprises compared to residents, or to protect the main body of employment.But the key issue here is that expectation management is a super significant behavioral economics concept; it is hard to say that once residents' expectations worsen, they will directly enter a state of precautionary savings.However, with such a significant policy shift, from the perspective of the stock market, facing this level of uncertainty in policy upheaval, the only thing funds can do is to run away first; after all, valuations were too high to begin with, and once they start running, there is no hesitation, just swift action.Therefore, this wave of decline in the U.S. stock market can initially look favorably at previously unattainable high-quality companies, but there is no need to rush to bottom-fish; it is better to first observe the changes in the rhetoric of Trump and the Treasury Secretary. <figure class="image"></figure><a href="https://longportapp.cn/zh-CN/topics/27779831">https://longportapp.cn/zh-CN/topics/27779831</a>

如何理解这轮川普关税大锤？ - LongPort

Tesla

NDAQ

The Fed's &#34;hawkish&#34; rate cut drama has finally arrived.Interest rates were cut by 25 basis points, bringing the policy rate to 4.25-4.5%.But in the new economic projections, next year's economic forecast numbers were comprehensively revised upwards.The policy rate expectations were directly lowered by 50 basis points, implying only two rate cuts next year (most likely ending by Q1).Originally, the market thought that after Q1, rate cut decisions would enter a hard mode, but at least one more cut was still possible.This guidance is effectively 25 basis points less than market expectations.The stock market rally brought by Trump's election, from traditional industries to small-cap stocks, then back to the Nasdaq's catch-up rally, followed by the frenzy over newly launched large models and ASICs.After this round of catch-up, the U.S. stock market is likely to consolidate, waiting for the next quarter's earnings.

Nasdaq

Trump is back. Let's talk about the possible impact on domestic industries and tax reduction policies.a. For current tech giants (except $Tesla(TSLA.US)), it's short-term bearish but may turn neutral in the long run. These tech giants essentially achieved their commercial imperialism under the globalist umbrella woven by the Democrats. Trump's return to American nativism isn't favorable for them. Fortunately, these tech giants' business moats allow them to grow independently without relying on their home country's protection, so the pressure isn't too severe.b. However, domestic corporate tax cuts combined with interest rate reductions are actually beneficial for tech giants' EPS.So when offsetting both directions, it feels short-term neutral-to-bearish, long-term neutral-to-bullish. $NASDAQ Composite Index(.IXIC.US) c. For traditional industries, whether it's defense (Republican defense spending is generally high) or traditional energy (reducing green energy subsidies, not prematurely accelerating green energy penetration), it's clearly bullish for Dow Jones-represented traditional sectors. $ProShares Ultra Dow30 ETF(DDM.US)

ProShares Ultra Dow30 ETF

STECH

00HSI

Countdown to the U.S. election, the answer will be revealed on the 6th if there are no abnormalities, while the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting will be held on the 7th. The National People's Congress Standing Committee meeting will conclude at 8 AM Beijing time. The earnings season for U.S. stocks has just passed its peak, and this week is packed with macro events. Where exactly is the market trading now, and how should we view the future? This article aims to outline the current situation from the perspective of considering responses to different scenarios, rather than making predictions. The first question is to take a look at market trading: 1. U.S. economic data is &#34;slightly cool.&#34; Last week, in addition to the earnings reports from the giants...

Hang Seng TECH Index

SPDR S&P 500

Hang Seng Index

Will the AI infrastructure frenzy backfire, and is the Trump trade coming to an end?

TQQQ

WEBL

.DJI

As the first interest rate cut by the U.S. dollar entering the post-pandemic era of rate cuts, this rate cut can be described as both &#34;big&#34; and &#34;hawkish.&#34;The &#34;big&#34; lies in the fact that the first rate cut directly slashed 50 basis points, which was indeed unexpected compared to market expectations; the &#34;hawkish&#34; aspect was conveyed during the conference call and the dot plot, indicating that this 50-basis-point cut should not be linearly extrapolated, and future decisions will still be data-driven. This 50-basis-point cut was merely to demonstrate the Federal Reserve's determination to protect the economy.An interesting point was when several reporters repeatedly asked Powell whether this was a &#34;catch-up&#34; rate cut. Powell emphasized that, given the relatively good data on inflation and consumption, the large rate cut was more focused on being a forward-looking move. However, he also admitted that if the July employment data had been known earlier, a rate cut might indeed have been implemented at the previous meeting on July 31.From Dolphin Research's perspective, this illustrates two points:a. Among the various economic data, the current unemployment rate and new employment figures are the real core data, as subsequent CPI and PPI reports did not raise any red flags for the Federal Reserve.b. The dot plot released by the Federal Reserve to some extent only reflects the Fed's wishes and guides the market to trade on these wishes, but it does not mean this path will necessarily materialize.From the revisions in this economic forecast, it can be seen that among the root variables of the economy, the most significantly revised was the unemployment rate. The 大幅下修的政策利率预期 is merely a result of this root variable.Therefore, in the coming period, a key tracking point for the expected rate cut 幅度 will be the labor market: What is the labor participation rate? How much has labor supply increased? How much has job demand decreased? How much has the unemployment rate increased, and is it within the &#34;controllable&#34; range below 4.5%?Especially given the 惯性下修 in 每次新增非农就业， it’s prudent to build in some 保险 upfront. Based on the downward adjustments over the past few months, some decline should already be factored in. At least, this is how Powell indicated the Federal Reserve would approach the data.Furthermore, Dolphin Research is not overly concerned about this hawkish rate cut path guidance. The key still lies in the employment data, particularly if the weakening is primarily due to an oversupply from increased immigrant inflows rather than a decline in corporate job demand. In that case, the economy may not be as weak as feared.

Proshares UltraPro QQQ

iShares barclays 20+ Yr Treasury Bd

Direxion 20+Yr Trsry Bull 3X

Direxion Daily Dow Jones Internet Bull 3X Shares ETF

Dow Jones Industrial Average

Google Launches AI-Powered Voice Mode Gmail Live

Google Launches $100 Developer AI Plan, Reduces AI Ultra Price to $200

Google CEO Announces Gemini 3.5 PRO to Launch Next Month

Google CEO Announces Gemini 3.5 Pro Launching Next Month

Google Officially Launches Gemini 3.5 Series Models, Starting with Flash Version

Nvidia Post-Earnings Market Cap Expected to Fluctuate by $355B, Options Show Bullish Sentiment Amid Profit-Taking Risks

Google Launches Gemini Ultra Model for Video Generation and Editing

Google to Launch AI-Powered Search on YouTube in US This Summer

Google re-enters smart glasses market with partners like Samsung, launching Android XR platform

Google CEO Announces Gemini App Monthly Active Users Doubled in a Year, Surpassing 900 Million

Google CEO Announces AI Overviews Monthly Active Users Reach 2.5 Billion

Evercore and Wedbush Raise Apple Price Targets Amid iOS Vulnerability Warnings and Legal Risks

Nebius Group CFO Marc Boroditsky Sells 4,500 Class A Shares

PAHO and Google join forces to expand access to trusted health information across the Americas

Amazon's Trainium AI Chips are Gaining Traction with Developers, Report Says

Analog Devices to Report Q2 2023 Earnings on May 20

T-Mobile US Inc Expands Next-Gen 911 and Text-to-911 Services Nationwide

Apple Reorganizes Hardware Unit to Accelerate AI Integration and Device Development

Coinbase Reportedly Spent $7.6 Million on CEO Security Last Year, Highlighting Industry Risks

Apple Sports Business Expands to Over 90 New Countries and Regions

InMed Pharmaceuticals

Amesite

AMPLITECH GROUP INC. COM USD0.001 (S/R 18/07/2026)

Meiwu Tech

AMPLITECH GROUP INC. USD0.001 S/R 20/11/26 SER B

NextNRG

CN Energy

MetaVia

Generation Income Properties

Co-Diagnostics

Pinned News

置顶新闻

ADP Weekly NER pulse 42.25K vs 33K last week

The ADP NER Pulse indicates a rise in private employment, with the current week's four-week average at 42.25K compared to 33K last week. This high-frequency labor market indicator provides real-time insights into hiring trends, influencing Federal Reserve policy. A stronger pulse suggests aggressive hiring, supporting economic growth but potentially increasing inflation pressures, while a weakening pulse may indicate slowing labor demand and expectations for rate cuts.

- The ADP NER Pulse is a new high-frequency labor market indicator that tracks weekly changes in private sector employment using a four-week moving average.  
- It aims to provide real-time insights into recruitment trends, influencing market expectations regarding Federal Reserve policies and economic growth.  
- A stronger NER Pulse may indicate robust hiring, potentially exerting inflationary pressure and supporting higher yields, while a weaker pulse could signal a slowdown in labor demand, impacting interest rate expectations and the dollar.

Investinglive

Automatic Data Process

A recent report has revealed that the unemployment rate in the country has dropped to 3.8%, marking a significant decrease from the previous rate of 4.2%. The number of new jobs created in the last month alone totaled 250,000, exceeding economists' expectations. Additionally, the average hourly wage saw an increase of 2.5%, indicating positive growth in the labor market. These statistics point to a strengthening economy and provide hope for those seeking employment opportunities.

Unusual Whales

SIH Partners notifies about participation.

U.S. credit card delinquencies have surged to 13.1%, the highest since 2010, indicating significant financial strain on households. Delinquencies rose 0.4 percentage points in Q1 2026, with a total increase of 5.5 points since Q3 2022. Additionally, student loan delinquencies reached 10.3%, and auto loan delinquencies hit a record 5.6%, reflecting growing repayment stress among consumers.

- Credit card delinquency rates in the U.S. have surged to a 15-year high, hitting 13.1% in the first quarter of 2026, according to The Kobeissi Letter.  
- This marks a 0.4 percentage point increase from the previous quarter and a significant rise of 5.5 percentage points since Q3 2022, surpassing trends seen from 2007 to 2010.  
- Additionally, serious delinquencies in student and auto loans have also increased, reflecting mounting repayment pressures on American households.

benzinga_article

Shutterstock

Americans Are Falling Behind On Credit Card Payments At The Fastest Pace Since 2010

.NDX

US stocks fall further from their records

Barchart Option

NASDAQ-100

US stocks fall further from their records

G7 finance ministers met in Paris to address economic imbalances in a fragmented global economy, emphasizing the need for domestic actions to tackle trade issues. They called for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and maintaining pressure on Russia regarding Ukraine. Discussions included diversifying supply chains for critical minerals and the necessity for the IMF to enhance monitoring. The group acknowledged differing views on sanctions waivers for Russia, highlighting the challenges in achieving consensus among member nations.

- The G7 finance ministers unanimously recognized the need for action to address trade imbalances in a fragmented global economy, highlighting unsustainable current conditions.  
- They discussed the economic impact of the Middle East conflict and the volatility of global bond markets, calling for immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and increased pressure on Russia regarding Ukraine.  
- Ministers also emphasized the urgency of ensuring secure passage through the Strait and mitigating supply chain pressures while acknowledging the ongoing inconsistencies within the G7 on various issues.

Businesstimes News

Thomson Reuters

G7 finance ministers agree need for action on economic imbalances

EXCLUSIVE — President Donald Trump expressed confidence in incoming Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh and said he would leave the interest rate decisions to him. The Washington Examiner spoke to Trump during a Tuesday morning phone call and pointed out that investors are now pegging a higher chance of an interest rate hike rather than […]

Trump going to let Warsh do what he wants to do at Fed with interest rates

The Federal Reserve's report reveals that 25% of U.S. workers have used generative AI in their jobs recently, with higher rates among those with advanced education. Most users view AI as a tool for efficiency and career growth. The report also highlights stable financial conditions for U.S. residents, though younger individuals and low-income families face increased financial pressures, with inflation being a primary concern.

CoinLive

Generative AI Gains Traction in U.S. Workforce, Federal Reserve Report Reveals

Contracts to purchase previously owned U.S. homes rose 1.4% in April, marking the third consecutive month of increases, driven by a decline in mortgage rates. The pending home sales index reached 74.8, with notable gains in the Northeast and Midwest. Despite rising economic uncertainty and mortgage rates, buyers are showing cautious optimism. The housing market faces challenges from high borrowing costs and tight inventory, with residential investment contracting for five quarters.

fidelity

Freddie Mac

Federal National Mortgage Association

US pending home sales increase for third straight month

Economists warn that the Iran war is increasing inflation expectations, pressuring the Fed to act. A U.S.-led blockade and Hormuz closure have reduced Iranian oil exports, raising global energy prices. Consequently, mortgage and bond yields are rising in the U.S. and Europe as borrowing costs increase amid inflation concerns.

Iran war fuels inflation fears as July Fed hike looms

.DJUS

The Great American Squeeze of 2026 highlights the economic struggles faced by Americans due to rising costs of living, with consumer sentiment at a 74-year low. While the wealthy benefit from a booming stock market, middle and lower-income families are increasingly burdened by debt and inflation, leading to a K-shaped economy where the divide between the rich and poor widens. This situation may signal the onset of a recession as lower-income households cut back on spending.

- The article highlights the economic struggles of American consumers facing rising costs amid stagnant wages, creating a K-shaped economic divide.  
- While wealthier households benefit from stock market gains, middle- and lower-income families increasingly rely on credit to manage basic expenses, leading to financial distress.  
- Experts warn that without significant wage growth, the economic squeeze on lower-income households will worsen, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions affecting energy prices.

ZeroHedge

Dow Jones U.S. Index

Disney

Allianz SE

Allianz

The Great American Squeeze Of 2026

.VIX

The 10-year Treasury yield has reached a 52-week high of 4.6%, indicating potential significant market movements. This yield influences borrowing costs and stock valuations, with rising yields typically leading to a shift away from equities. Current inflationary pressures, particularly related to the Iran conflict, may prompt the Federal Reserve to maintain or raise rates. Analysts are divided on whether yields will break higher or lower, with implications for future monetary policy and market stability.

InvestorPlace

Cboe Volatility Index

Moodys

The Bond Market Just Flashed Red