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CSRC Allows QFII, RQFII to Participate in Treasury Futures Trading

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China's central bank is set to withdraw a net 200 billion yuan (S$37.3 billion) through its one-year medium-term lending facility in April, marking its first withdrawal since February 2025. This move aims to address a liquidity surplus in the financial system, following cash injections and weak credit demand. The central bank is balancing liquidity by reducing long-term funds while maintaining short-term stability. Consequently, yields on China's sovereign bonds have risen, reflecting the ongoing adjustments in the interbank market.

- The People's Bank of China is implementing measures to manage excess liquidity in its financial system by reducing the medium-term funding offered to banks.  
- It plans to withdraw 200 billion yuan through its one-year medium-term lending facility in April, marking the first such withdrawal since February 2025.  
- This action aims to balance liquidity, as weak loan demand has led to liquidity surplus, impacting interbank lending costs and driving down bond yields.

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Guotai SSE 5-Year China Treasury Note ETF

Pengyang Chinabond 30-year Treasury Bond ETF

Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited

ANZ Group Holdings Limited

GUOSHENG SECURITIES

China taps another tool to drain excess cash from market

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Treasury futures closed with the 30-year main contract down 0.50%, the 10-year main contract down 0.04%, and both the 5-year and 2-year main contracts up 0.01%

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Bosera SSE 30-Year China Treasury Bond ETF

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Xinjiang recently issued multiple local bonds, including 15-year general bonds, 7-year general bonds, 10-year and 15-year other special purpose bonds, a 20-year other special purpose bond, and a 7-year ordinary special purpose bond. The total issuance size reached 11.963 billion yuan, with offering rates ranging from 1.6800% to 2.3200%. Marginal multiples varied between 1.24x and 13.11x, reflecting strong market demand for these bonds

ISHRS Us Trsry Bd

ABF HK IDX ETF

SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF

Penghua CSI 0-4 Year Local Government Bond ETF

iShares barclays 20+ Yr Treasury Bd

iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF

iShares Inflation Hedged US Aggregate Bond ETF

iShares Barclays Short Treasury

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China Development Bank issued a 3-year bond with a size of 5 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.4900%, compared to an expected rate of 1.4800% and a bid multiple of 4.08 times; it also issued a 7-year bond with a size of 2 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.6945%, compared to an expected rate of 1.7100% and a bid multiple of 6.02 times

Ping An CSI 5-10Y CGB ETF

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Fullgoal Chinabond 7-10 Year Policy Bank Bond ETF

China Merchants CSI Treasury and Policy Bank Bond 0-3 Years ETF

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SPIB

IGSB

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The 10-year treasury yield has decisively broken below 1.75%, while extremely loose liquidity conditions combined with a shortage of assets have driven the bond market to rise for three consecutive weeks. However, Huatai Securities and Zhongyou Securities have issued joint warnings: a structure dominated by mutual fund trading desks 'lifting each other up' hides underlying fragility; the central bank's stance remains a sword of Damocles overhead; the 'smoothest phase' may be nearing its end; those who missed the rally chasing the uptrend can only prolong the duration but cannot alter the medium-term risk landscape

- The 10-year government bond yield has dropped below 1.75%, while the 30-year yield nears 2.25%, reflecting strong market conditions driven by excess liquidity and the demand for assets.  
- Recent reports from Huatai Securities and Zhongyou Securities warn that although risks remain controllable in the short term, the market's most favorable phase is nearing an end, with emerging mid-term risks.  
- Key drivers of the current market include sustained liquidity conditions, net inflows into bond funds, the clarity of ultra-long-term treasury bond issuance, and a downward adjustment in bill rates, indicating overall weak credit demand.

SPDR Intermed Term

iShares Trust iShares 1-5 Year Invest Grade Corp Bond ETF

Vanguard Intermediate Term Bd

State Street Corp.

iShares iBoxx  Invt

Vanguard Short Term Bd

Vanguard Long Term Bd

Schwab 5-10 Year Corp Bond ETF

VanEck China Bond ETF

After Breaking Key Levels, Where is the Bond Market Heading

The People's Bank of China expects that by the end of March 2026, the custodial balance of foreign institutions in China's bond market will reach RMB 3.2 trillion, accounting for 1.6% of the total market custodial balance. In the first quarter of 2026, the total issuance of panda bonds was RMB 842.4 billion, and 10 new foreign institutions entered the interbank bond market

China's Central Bank: As of end-March 2026, foreign institutions' custodial balance in China's bond market reached RMB 3.2 trillion

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Recently, the Ministry of Finance plans to issue RMB 15.5 billion in government bonds in Hong Kong, marking the expansion of the offshore market in Hong Kong. Despite the high borrowing costs, this move aims to expand the asset pool of offshore RMB and address the investment needs of offshore RMB holders. Since 2018, offshore RMB deposits and related assets in Hong Kong have grown rapidly, indicating that this trend may continue

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New situation! Pay more attention to RMB opportunities in Hong Kong

Treasury futures opened with the 30-year main contract up 0.09%, the 10-year main contract up 0.01%, the 5-year main contract up 0.02%, and the 2-year main contract up 0.02%

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On April 13th, demand for 30-year Treasury bonds surged, with funds flowing to the long end. Data shows that the yield on 30-year Treasury bonds fell to 2.31%, while the 10-year Treasury bond yield was 1.81%. Short-end rates generally rose, steepening the yield curve. Traders pointed out that funds are shifting from the medium-short end to the ultra-long end, with potential recovery space for 30-year Treasury bonds exceeding 20 basis points. Market risks need to be approached with caution

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The entire market is scrambling for 30-year Treasury bonds, and there is still a potential recovery space of over 20 basis points at the ultra-long end

China’s 10-year government bond yield fell to around 1.80%, its lowest in over a month, as investors sought safer assets after failed US–Iran peace talks and President Trump’s naval blockade announcement. Amid the Middle East tensions, Chinese bonds are seen as a safe haven, bolstered by energy resilience and policy support. The yield has only risen about 3 bps recently, contrasting with larger gains in US and European bonds. Investors are now awaiting significant economic data, including trade figures and GDP.

Trading Economics

China 10Y Yield Hits Over 1-Month Low

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