FL2 CSOP HSI

Trading SGX DLCs humbled me real quick.

Thought: "5x Long = easy money"

Reality: daily reset, compounding, airbag can wipe you to zero 😅

What I learned after a few months trading HSI and US indices DLCs:

Long is not always strong. Short is not always wrong.

DLCs are for DAYS, not months.

If you don't have a stop loss, the market will give you one.

I now only use DLCs when:

1. Trend is super clear 2. I can watch the market 3. Position size is small

It's a scalpel, not a sledgehammer.

Still learning. If you're trading DLCs too, let's share notes 👇

Not financial advice.

$XTALPI(02228.HK)$Rocket Lab(RKLB.US)$Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK) are all rising. Is the US market going crazy again?

Tech has made a remarkable turnaround since last week and seems to be doing rather well. There are those who still are wary and rightly so. However I believe tech is just starting its engines.

The markets are placing such high expectations on these memory stocks. The funny thing is the valuation now is generally lower than when the market was hungrily bidding them up just two months back. Sentiments just can’t be quantified. It allows rational investors better prices though so that’s a good thing.

HSI index seems to be in the bottoming out process from the hard selling this round caused by the recent events of mainland gov crackdown on fund outflows US gov blacklistings of some index stocks etc...TGIF if the opportunity arise will try some VKLW next week. Cheers

$Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK) The Hang Seng Index has been fluctuating within a 20-year range. Can you believe it? It's really no different from A-shares; from this perspective

$Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK)has evolved into a hybrid market that reflects China’s economic cycle more than Hong Kong’s domestic fundamentals. Its performance is increasingly driven by mainland policy follow-through, earnings durability in platform and financial stocks, and cross-border capital flows via Stock Connect. Valuation alone is no longer a catalyst; sustained upside depends on whether policy support translates into real profit recovery and renewed confidence from long-term global investors.

$XTALPI(02228.HK) The first to rise in the Hong Kong stock watch list! Push it up!

The exchange rate of HKD against USD is rising rapidly. Will there still be big opportunities in Hong Kong stocks? $Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK) $Hang Seng TECH Index(STECH.HK)

While the US stock market hovers under the shadow of tariffs, the Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a liquidity-driven structural frenzy. But is this 'Hong Kong stocks feast' the beginning of a trend revaluation, or a short-lived bubble induced by capital?

From a macro perspective, the weak dollar cycle and the abundance of Hong Kong dollar liquidity are the core drivers of the Hong Kong stock market. In May, US tariff revenue surged to a peak of $22 billion, yet the CPI remained stable, coupled with the potential impact of immigration policies on the job market, the probability of a Fed rate cut in June-July is extremely low. The US stock market remains in a tug-of-war between 'chicken ribs market and downside risk.' In contrast, the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate has quickly slid from the strong-side guarantee to the weak-side edge, HIBOR rates are nearly zero, and the abundant liquidity is flooding into new consumption, innovative drugs, and A/H premium targets, driving both blue-chip dividend stocks and growth assets higher.

However, the sustainability of the structural revaluation of Hong Kong stocks is highly dependent on the liquidity environment. The current extremely low level of HIBOR has deviated from the US benchmark interest rate. If the Fed's policy shifts or there are changes in the supply and demand of funds, a liquidity retreat could trigger a valuation correction. More critically, the structural premium of the same asset in Hong Kong stocks compared to A-shares lacks fundamental support. In a market dominated by southbound funds, caution is needed against the risk of valuation overshoot under 'capital frenzy.'

In the short term, as long as the cost of borrowing in Hong Kong dollars remains low, there is still room for liquidity-driven revaluation to continue. However, in the long term, whether Hong Kong stocks can escape the 'capital market' dilemma depends on whether corporate earnings can take over liquidity as the anchor of valuation. Investors need to closely monitor changes in HIBOR rates and maintain sensitivity to risks amid the liquidity feast. $Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK)

$Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK)

When the Hong Kong dollar triggers the strong-side convertibility undertaking, the Hong Kong government will be forced to issue Hong Kong dollars to buy US dollars (unless Hong Kong abandons the linked exchange rate system due to another crisis caused by excessive base money).

Short-term may benefit the Hong Kong stock market.

On a weekly basis, the southbound capital flow in Hong Kong stocks was a net outflow in the past week. This is unusual, as it's the first time this has happened in at least over a year. $HSTECH ETF(03032.HK) $Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK) $XIAOMI-W(01810.HK)

$XTALPI(02228.HK)$Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK)This is a key macro indicator for Hong Kong stocks.

$Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK) $XTALPI(02228.HK) Who should be blamed for these poor souls in Hong Kong stocks today? Sigh... damn it

During the 2018 trade war, Gao Shanwen gave a relatively well-known internal speech:

Our generation has already made enough money, so young people should just wash up and go to sleep.

As for the 2025 tariff war, what I want to say is: young people might not be able to sleep.

$Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK)$Hang Seng TECH Index(STECH.HK)$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US)$SPDR S&P 500(SPY.US)