MB-CTEL@EC2701A

I think the market is too optimistic about the Iran war. The fact is 20% of the oil is missing form the system for 2 months. How is this not making an impact to the investment world? INFLATION!!!

AI is back, chips back in play. The Iran war has long been forgotten. Time to long Korean, Taiwan and China ETF!

The Iran talk must resume sooner or later. Iran have no revenue due to the blockade, while Trump cannot have high oil prices. It's a chicken and egg situation!

I am impressed by Elon Musk’s cost cutting, efficiency-driven approach across his companies that translate to excellent report card.

I see Tesla’s strong Q1 earnings as partly supported by geopolitical factors, improved free cash flow from cost discipline and some revenue growth.

However, EV delivery volumes fell short of expectations and this weakness may become more evident over the next few quarters. Subsequently, it will affect its revenue numbers and its margin.

1. Diplomatic breakthrough unlikely. Oil downsize risk is small, upsize risk moderate.

2. Short term bullish but margin pressure will return.

3. Sustain for now, but pullback.

About the Iran-US issue: Trump's just throwing a lot of lies and hyperbole here and there to muddle the truth about the hole he dug for himself (and to which, he is dragging the world into). But for now, I think the markets just have to do what it has to do -- thrive and trade. A "cautious optimism" would be the appropriate way to describe how the market is responding to the oil and geopolitical crisis we have now.

Tesla’s Q1 definitely gives the AI/auto story more fuel, but I don’t think margin pressure is gone yet. Positive FCF and an EPS beat are strong, but the revenue miss and Musk warning that capex will surge tell me Tesla is still very much in investment mode.

So yes, the long-term story looks stronger — but near term, investors may still have to deal with margin compression before all that spending starts to pay off.

Investors are prioritizing strong corporate fundamentals and AI-driven growth over short-term geopolitical noise. Think the conflict will remain contained.

Lol. The middle east standoff is like a high school drama. One side saying one thing and the other saying another. My take is the US is trying to scare Iran into submission but at the same time does not want to seem too harsh whereas Iran just wants to defend their homeland! Whatever it is, the whole world has to stomach the repercussions. And market keeps churning up on low volume. Stay safe!

Trump said US-Iran negotiations might resume "on Friday or within 1.5-3 days" — but Iran called it "another lie". The ceasefire agreement expires on April 26.

Everyone knows Trump's style; the impossible is always possible with him at any moment 🤔

Back to investment topics, you need to have your own judgment and analysis.

Try not to chase the hype.

The memory shortage narrative have already been priced in and it's a matter of time before someone will come out with some kind report (think deep seek, SaaS death, etc) to prick the balloon. As always, know your thesis, take fullor partial profit when your condition is met.

Well… will Trump play the world out again?

US-Iran war will continue to worsen due to one sided conversation which would not improve the situation. Inflation will remain sticky in the coming months.

Tesla’s new AI chips massively boost computing power for training self driving and robotics AI, shifting the company toward an AI platform narrative. This drives stock volatility but can push valuations higher long-term as investors price in future software and AI revenue, even though short-term profits may drop due to heavy spending.