0825 ｜Dolphin Research Focus:

🐬 Macro/Industry

1. U.S. Treasury Sec. Bessent said on Mon local time the Gov. will conduct a new round of long-bond buybacks on Sep 9, and will keep the buyback tool in use, mainly covering 10–30Y USTs to address the recent surge in long-end yields. This signals direct intervention in long-bond yields, offering short-term sentiment support for Treasuries, but the market worries about funding sources amid a large fiscal deficit. If the impact is limited, long-end rates could still rise, further compressing global equity valuations.

2. ByteDance released 'Doubao Work', an enterprise productivity Agent product, completing TRAE and 'Button' team integration, deeply connecting with Feishu (Lark) to break down complex office tasks and operate across software on PCs; the desktop version is live with a 30‑day free trial. It takes on Tencent WorkBuddy and Alibaba Qianwen Office directly, with Feishu’s enterprise context as a key differentiator. Conversion to paid and real-world adoption will be the key watch items.

🐬 Single Stocks

1.$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

NVIDIA announced the Groq 3 LPX inference hardware has entered full mass production, built on tech assets from its $20 bn acquisition of Groq, targeting ultra-low‑latency token output for AI agents and code generation; racks will be deployed in Nebius data centers, with commercial go‑live within the year. The move completes NVIDIA’s inference-side hardware puzzle, shifting AI competition from training to low‑latency inference. As agent use cases scale, demand for low‑latency hardware should surge, intensifying competition across the inference chip stack.

2.$XIAOMI-W(01810.HK)

Xiaomi unveiled three in‑house 'Xuanjie' chips: Xuanjie O3 (flagship phone SoC, 3nm), Xuanjie O100 (on‑device AI accelerator), and Xuanjie D100 (smart driving chip). O3 will debut with a foldable in Sep, while O100 and D100 have returned from tape‑out and aim for commercial rollout next year, completing a multi‑compute footprint across devices, autos, and home. O3 lands first, with the other two needing commercial validation, a long‑term positive for Xiaomi’s integrated HW/SW ecosystem.

3.$BABA-W(09988.HK)

Alibaba completed a HK$80 bn new share placement, with proceeds fully earmarked for AI compute build‑out. Post‑placement, Joseph Tsai and Eddie Wu bought a combined ~HK$120 mn in HK shares, signaling management confidence, and the deal drew subscriptions from sovereign funds and other long‑term capital. The sizeable equity raise lifts AI capex and brings near‑term dilution pressure; concurrent insider buying underpins sentiment, with focus shifting to ROI and payback timelines for AI investments.

4.$Coinbase(COIN.US)

Coinbase launched tokenized stocks on Base, starting with Apple, NVIDIA, Meta, and Alphabet, with a custodian under Abu Dhabi’s regulatory framework holding 1:1 backing of the underlying equities; trading runs 24/7 on‑chain and can plug into DeFi collateralized lending, open to non‑U.S. qualified users. This bridges traditional U.S. equity assets with on‑chain finance. However, cross‑border regulatory uncertainty remains, so near‑term it is more of a pilot and the scale‑up pace bears watching.

5.$Apple(AAPL.US)

Per media reports, Apple plans to unveil a new Mac mini within days, its first update in two years, potentially skipping M5 and going straight to M6, earlier than the Sep iPhone fall event, with a focus on local AI workloads. This is still market chatter and Apple has not announced it.

6. Dolphin Research Earnings & Calls

PDD: 'PDD: From 'edgy' tactics to mainstream discipline', 'PDD (Trans): Clearly not pursuing instant retail' XPeng: 'XPeng: Auto sales under pressure, can the AI story keep dancing?', 'XPeng (Trans): Robot valuation at $6.2 bn, mass production by year‑end' Lao Pu Gold, Nongfu Spring, Vipshop, and Kanzhun report earnings.

🐬 Top Gainers by Sector

A‑shares: Real Estate Services, Food Distributors, Kitchenware.

HK: Textiles, Industrial Gases, Life Sciences Tools & Services.

U.S.: Paper Products, Consumer Retailers, Transaction & Payment Services.

🐬 Watchlist for Tomorrow

1) Li Auto, Sanhua, Meitu, Gu Ming, and Minimax report earnings.

2) U.S. Jul personal spending MoM, U.S. Jul core PCE price index MoM, U.S. Jul core PCE price index YoY, and the revision to U.S. Q2 real GDP annualized QoQ.

Risk disclosure and statement: Dolphin Research disclaimer and general disclosures