Morning Trend | MEITU's funds shrink and observe, can the AI boom repeatedly ignite new expectations?

MEITU (1357.HK) has recently seen a significant reduction in capital, maintaining a low turnover range for several consecutive days, indicating a rising wait-and-see sentiment among major players. The intraday price movements often show a fluctuating consolidation pattern, lacking substantial upward momentum. Technically, the stock price is below the short-term moving averages, and the death cross signal has not yet been resolved, with indicators like MACD and KDJ showing weakness, indicating a stalemate between bulls and bears. Although industries such as AI and large models have seen repeated catalysts, MEITU's own fundamental drivers are weak, with slow progress in the commercialization of AI-related products, leading to a decline in investor confidence. Against the backdrop of a weakening external technology sector, incremental capital favors targets with higher certainty, impacting MEITU and intensifying the existing competitive landscape. In terms of price structure, around HKD 2.8 serves as a short-term weak support; if it breaks below in the short term, it could trigger a downward cascade towards the HKD 2.5 area. If bulls want to seize control, they need to rely on intraday fluctuations and sector correlations to drive incremental capital back. Currently, there are no strong reversal signs from either news or market signals. Considering the market atmosphere and MEITU's business fundamentals, it is recommended that investors maintain a cautious attitude, focusing on the catalysts in the AI industry chain and the matching of trading volume, with short-term strategies only suitable for defensive positions. A revival in sector sentiment and the alleviation of capital wait-and-see mood are necessary for a potential market reversal; otherwise, it is advisable to remain on the sidelines

"Doubao AI Assistant" Idealistic vs. Realistic? Morgan Stanley: Major smartphone manufacturers prefer in-house development, making implementation very difficult

Morgan Stanley believes that although the demo version of Doubao showcases a rich functional ecosystem, its implementation faces significant challenges. This is because it involves modifications at the operating system level, which undermines the bargaining power of mobile phone manufacturers in the supply chain. Giants that control hardware entry will never easily hand over the keys. Morgan Stanley remains optimistic about "super apps" such as WeChat, Taobao, and Meituan

Didi 3Q25 Quick Interpretation: In early November, Didi updated the market with guidance on its 3Q performance, mainly mentioning two issues: 1. The investment in the food delivery business in Brazil (to gain a first-mover advantage over Meitu Keeta) will lead to a significant expansion of losses in overseas business; 2. The guidance also indicated that domestic subsidies and other investments would be concentrated in the second half of the year, resulting in a decline in the domestic business's adj. EBITA profit margin compared to the high point in the first half.As this unfavorable guidance was digested by the market, Didi's stock price subsequently retreated by nearly 20%. The actual performance this quarter was largely in line with the previous guidance, with Bloomberg's consensus expectations being somewhat high due to untimely updates, while major banks have made corresponding adjustments. Therefore, overall, Didi's performance this season was expectedly poor.Specifically:1) In terms of core growth indicators, the domestic travel segment's GTV grew by approximately 10% year-on-year, slightly slowing down by about 2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The domestic business growth remains generally stable and largely in line with expectations. Meanwhile, the GTV growth rate of overseas business significantly increased to 31%, reflecting that the overseas investment indeed accelerated business growth, and it was notably higher than Bloomberg's consensus expectations.2) In terms of profit, the domestic business adj. EBITA profit was 2.98 billion, slightly higher than the November guidance of 2.7-2.8 billion. However, the trend shows that this quarter's profit margin fell significantly from over 4% in the first two quarters of this year (based on GTV) to 3.5% this quarter, indicating a considerable decline. Dolphin Research preliminarily judges that this is more due to the drag of weakening overall domestic ride-hailing demand (macro factors), while Didi's competitive landscape remains stable or further improved.3) The overseas business's loss this quarter expanded significantly to nearly 1.8 billion, with the loss rate doubling quarter-on-quarter to 5.6%, which is generally in line with the updated expectations of major banks. As mentioned earlier, this is mainly due to the impact of investment in Brazil's food delivery. $DiDi(DIDIY.US)

Sinolink Securities Sticks to Its Buy Rating for Meitu (MEIUF)

Sinolink Securities has maintained a Buy rating for Meitu with a price target of HK$11.73, while the stock closed at HK$8.22. Analysts generally suggest a Strong Buy consensus with a $1.64 average price target, indicating a potential -80.05% downside. UBS also maintained a Buy rating with a HK$14.10 target.

Morning Trend | MEITU tests the critical point, is a short-term weak rebound coming?

MEITU (1357.HK) has recently seen its stock price approaching a key technical level during a continuous decline, with early trading showing signs of stabilization. The market is generally focused on whether a weak rebound is brewing in the short term. During yesterday's trading, the MACD indicator was in a death cross structure, with the momentum bars gradually shortening, indicating initial signs of short-term overselling, but the divergence between bulls and bears remains quite evident. Currently, the 5-day and 10-day moving averages are still diverging downwards, which constrains any potential rebound. Most major players chose to remain on the sidelines, and trading volume has not shown significant expansion. Looking back at the recent market performance, since the high point, the stock price has continuously broken down, with market risk appetite cooling. Some funds are buying on dips, but the willingness to rebound is not strong. In short-term analysis, if today's trading volume continues to remain sluggish, the stock price may still oscillate around the current support level, with the rebound window potentially opening later. Key reference points are the 5-day moving average and around HKD 13.50; if it can effectively stay above these levels with accompanying volume, a weak rebound window may temporarily open, with attention on the resistance level around HKD 14.00. It is important to note that if the current support is lost during a downward probe, the market may face a new round of inertia selling. Investors are advised to strictly control their positions and wait for clearer technical signals. The current market environment for MEITU is relatively weak, with low risk appetite among funds. If external negative news or industry headwinds arise, a further search for a bottom in the short term cannot be ruled out. Therefore, although a weak rebound is possible, participation should focus on light positions for testing and defense, waiting for a structural strengthening before making further moves