HSXPENG@EC2701A

0826 | Dolphin Research focus: 🐬 Macro/Industry

1) The U.S. and Iran signaled consensus on a ceasefire and free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, pressuring crude in the near term, while the 10Y UST yield eased to 4.64%. U.S. equities rallied across the three major indices; NVDA snapped a seven-session run. Geopolitical risks de-escalating lifted global risk appetite, with energy under pressure but tech/semis rebounding.

Oil's pullback eases inflation and long-end rate pressure. It is a short-term tailwind for long-duration growth stocks.

2) Also, at 20:30 tonight, the U.S. Jul PCE report is due. The PCE print directly shapes rate-cut expectations...

0825 | Dolphin Research Focus: Macro/Industry — 1) The U.S. Treasury Secretary said on Mon (local time) that a new round of long-bond buybacks will be executed on Sep 9, and the tool will remain active. The operations will cover 10–30Y USTs to address the recent spike in long-end yields.

This signals direct Treasury intervention at the long end, offering a short-term sentiment backstop for USTs. However, markets worry about the funding source for buybacks given a swollen fiscal deficit. If the effect is limited, long-end rates still face upside, which would keep a lid on global equity valuations...