JP-CRBH@EC2602A(18966.HK)

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JP-CRBH@EC2602A
18966.HK
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In the report "Big Banks," CMSC lowered the target price for CHINA RES BEER to 31 yuan and maintained a "Buy" rating

CITIC Securities International's research report has lowered the target price for CHINA RES BEER to 31 yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating. Despite pressure on the ready-to-drink channel, sales growth in non-ready-to-drink channels has shown resilience in overall sales. Heineken's growth rate is about 20%, and low-end products have also seen slight positive growth. It is expected that net profit will achieve high single-digit to double-digit growth by 2025, with the dividend payout ratio expected to increase to 70%. At the same time, the liquor business may incur impairment losses, which will have short-term impacts but will be beneficial for valuation improvement in the long term. Revenue forecasts for the fiscal years 2025 and 2026 have been slightly adjusted downwards by about 2%

AASTOCKS·
HK
06099
-4.13%
HK
00291
-2.02%
AASTOCKS·
HK
06099
-4.13%
HK
00291
-2.02%

Tsingtao Brewery Signs New Framework Agreements for 2026

Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited has signed multiple framework agreements effective from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2026. These agreements include a Comprehensive Services Framework Agreement with Tsingtao Brewery Group, an Entrusted Production and Product Purchase Agreement with Qingdao Beverage, a Trademark License Agreement with Youjia Health and others, and a Supply Chain Services Framework Agreement with Zhilian Shunda. The agreements involve connected transactions and comply with the Listing Rules and Shanghai Stock Exchange regulations.

Reuters·
SZ
159843
-4.14%
SH
600600
-5.49%
SH
515170
-4.23%
Reuters·
SZ
159843
-4.14%
SH
600600
-5.49%
SH
515170
-4.23%

Early Morning Trend | CHINA RES BEER approaches the lower band, is the short-term downside risk heating up under weak consumption recovery?

On January 12th, China Resources Beer (0291.HK) once again exhibited a one-sided downward trend, with the consumer sector's "heat cooling," leading to outflows of main funds and a market primarily characterized by low-level pulses. From the market perspective, there are no core driving events in the industry, and institutions have lower expectations for consumer assets compared to the same period last year, with terminal demand recovery lagging behind, causing the stock price to decline throughout the day to the critical support area of 26.14 yuan. The MACD daily line shows a death cross, with indicators synchronously weakening, and the pressure on the lower Bollinger Band increasing, exacerbating technical weakness signals. Currently, the industry is in a "quiet period," with no new orders or incremental business disclosures. The peak season for beer consumption has ended, and the winter off-season, combined with delayed mainline switching, is dragging down market confidence. In this context, a decline in leading stocks can easily trigger overall fluctuations in the consumer sector. If there are sudden adjustments in consumption tax, holiday promotions, or positive news stimuli, the market may experience divergent rebounds; otherwise, the short-term structure will be difficult to improve under pressure. Right-side traders should closely monitor intraday volume, policy signals, and market anomalies. The old logic of consumption has become ineffective, and a recovery in volume or sudden events will be the turning point for this round of market trends. If the market quickly rushes to buy, the sustainability of the rebound needs to be tracked for volume-price coordination. It is recommended to guard against chain risks triggered by declines and to respond flexibly to weak cyclical fluctuations

Technical Forecast·
HK
00291
-2.02%
Technical Forecast·
HK
00291
-2.02%

Morning Trend | CHINA RES BEER's attempt to rebound from the bottom fails, can the consumer sector withstand the pressure?

China Resources Beer (291.HK) has recently faced significant downward pressure, with the daily MACD continuously showing a death cross and weak short-term technical performance. Although there were attempts to rebound during certain periods, the momentum was insufficient, and the stock price has overall remained in a weak oscillation at a phase low, with low trading volume and continued capital outflow. The consumer sector is affected by macroeconomic uncertainties, leading to intensified internal rotation within the sector. As a leading company, China Resources Beer has not yet shown strong counterattack signals. On the industry level, consumer scenarios are gradually recovering post-pandemic, but the recovery speed is limited, coupled with a lack of new growth stimuli in the market, resulting in a dominant wait-and-see sentiment among investors. Technically, the previous low support is weak, and the MACD continues to amplify the green bars. If an effective stabilization pattern cannot be formed in the near term, the stock price may continue to seek a lower bottom. In the medium to long term, it is necessary to wait for catalysts such as better-than-expected performance or cost reductions. In terms of operational strategy, it is recommended to maintain a light position and observe, strictly control positions, and pay attention to capital movements in the support area and marginal changes in industry prosperity. Only with a rebound in trading volume and a K-line breaking through the phase pressure level can we judge that the trend may improve; otherwise, we must be on guard for the risk of new lows at any time

Technical Forecast·
HK
00291
-2.02%
Technical Forecast·
HK
00291
-2.02%

Daiwa downgraded the target price for CHINA RES BEER to 36 yuan and reiterated the "Buy" rating

Daiwa published a research report, reiterating its "Buy" rating on CHINA RES BEER, but lowering the target price from HKD 38 to HKD 36. Daiwa pointed out that CHINA RES BEER is catering to instant retail and developing new flavors to adapt to the changes in Chinese young consumers. Although the expansion of average selling prices and profit margins may slow down, Daiwa remains optimistic about its execution capabilities and strategic flexibility

AASTOCKS·
HK
00291
-2.02%
AASTOCKS·
HK
00291
-2.02%
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$CHINA RES BEER(00291.HK) Overall, China Resources Beer's performance in 24H2 is in line with expectations under low forecasts. Although the story of premiumization driving ton price increases is stil...

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