0729 ｜Dolphin Focus:

🐬 Macro / Sector

1. In the early hours of Jul 30 Beijing time, the Fed will announce its Jul FOMC rate decision. The base case is a hold, but the implied odds of a hike remain above 30%, underscoring internal policy divergence. Markets will parse the Chair's remarks for clues on the rate path, with the outcome set to drive UST yields and global risk pricing, and to pressure APAC equities and growth/tech near term as risk-on sentiment fades.

2. The KOSPI triggered circuit breakers for two straight sessions, with Wednesday's intraday plunge exceeding 12% as panic spread. The rout is widely linked to a forced-selling spiral amplified by a leveraged single-stock ETF, prompting an apology from the Finance Minister, who admitted regulators underestimated the risks of such products. Policy-watch is intense: Blue House officials said they are closely monitoring but will not activate the market stabilization fund for now. The apology, coupled with a cooler rescue stance, further dents risk appetite.

🐬 Single Stocks

1.$XIAOMI-W(01810.HK)

Xiaomi will host the 'PENGCHENG' tech launch at 19:00 on Jul 30, unveiling the Kunlun vehicle architecture and two new range-extended SUVs, N70 Max and N90 Max. The series targets spacious family use, complementing SU7 and YU7 performance sedans, and moves into the family REx SUV arena led by Li Auto and Aito. Investors will watch pricing, range, and interior space. The event will shape valuation expectations for Xiaomi Auto.

2.$LI AUTO-W(02015.HK)

Li Auto surged over 10%. Media reports suggest the company plans to launch two robotics products this year, leveraging in-house ADAS/cockpit AI models for cross-domain reuse. Li Auto is pushing a shift from smart EV maker to embodied-intelligence platform, using its full-vehicle AI R&D stack to enter robotics. The rally reflects optimism about a second growth curve, but commercialization will take time and needs sustained proof.

3.$Amazon(AMZN.US)

Amazon is reshaping its AI strategy, putting several flagship Nova-series models (Premier, Omni, Reel, Canvas) into maintenance mode with no new R&D investment. The company is consolidating compute and talent to focus on a next-gen foundation model. This retrenchment abandons a multi-track approach to cut near-term AI spend, a near-term negative for in-house model ambitions but positive for resource focus and the AI P&L outlook.

4. Dolphin on Earnings & Call Trans

SK hynix:《海力士：存储告别 “暴涨叙事”，LTA 成了 “避风港”？》、《SK 海力士（纪要）：LTA 包含保证金，扩产不会导致立即过剩》

Bloom Energy:《Bloom Energy: 无惧延期疑虑，吃透 AI 缺电红利？》、《Bloom Energy（纪要）：全面上调全年指引》

Coca-Cola:《可口可乐：AI 塌方，老登回口老血？》、《可口可乐（纪要）：销量创 17 年最强，上调全年指引》

🐬 Top Gainers

A-shares: Video Games & Multimedia, Water & Soft Drinks, Education Services;

HK: Agricultural Products, Water & Soft Drinks, Automakers;

US: Port Operators, Personal Care Products, Healthcare Providers.

🐬 Watchlist for Tomorrow

1. ARM, Qualcomm, Meta, Microsoft, and Starbucks report earnings.

2. US data: Fed rate decision (upper bound) as of Jul 29, Jun Personal Spending MoM, Jun Core PCE MoM, Jun Core PCE YoY, Q2 Real GDP SAAR (advance), Q2 Real Personal Consumption SAAR (advance), Q2 Core PCE SAAR (advance).

Risk disclosure and statement: Dolphin Research Disclaimer and General Disclosure