Credo Tech

According to a senior engineer at Inphi:

> Hyperscalers prefer to stay on 800G as long as possible to maximize existing infrastructure investments unless specific inference workloads (like long-context or domain-specific enterprise models) necessitate a faster migration to 1.6T.

>While some anticipate 3.2T deployment by late 2028, a true majority market field deployment is more realistically expected closer to 2030.

> Regarding Credo, the expert notes that the company operates in a similar space to Marvell's scale-up segment and achieved major success by dominating the active copper cable market with a well-timed solution after nearly failing in the past. Many of Credo's engineers previously worked within the expert's group at Marvell, and they are recognized as having strong engineering capabilities. Credo initially capitalized because Marvell's product management and roadmap focus were directed toward optical connectivity rather than that specific copper segment. However, the expert believes that Marvell's next-generation offerings position them on par or ahead in the ongoing race, even though Credo will not easily relinquish its dominant position.

$Marvell Tech(MRVL.US) $Credo Tech(CRDO.US)

Mizuho Securities: Optics

Market Trends & Technologies

> Optical Circuit Switches (OCS): OCS is gaining traction among hyperscalers, with Google (GOOGL) leading adoption in its Jupiter Network and other hyperscalers like Amazon (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT) exploring its use. Lumentum (LITE) and Huber+Suhner (HUBN) are identified as key partners in this space.

> Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) vs. Near-Packaged Optics (NPO): While interest in CPO continues to grow (with potential deliveries in 2028/29E), industry focus is shifting toward NPO in the near-term because it is easier to deploy and requires less co-integration than CPO, despite being less power-efficient.

> Silicon Photonics (SiPho) & InP: The supply chain for SiPho remains constrained, with demand potentially outpacing foundry capacities at GFS and TSEM. A transition to 6-inch wafers is underway to help alleviate supply tightness by providing ~130% higher wafer area.

> Micro-LED (uLED) Potential: uLED/ALC is emerging as a potential disruptor for networking, offering 20-30m reach at approximately 1/5th the cost of optical pluggables, with no InP supply constraints. Credo (CRDO) is noted as a key player in this space, targeting deliveries starting in 2027-28E.

Company-Specific Updates (Lumentum & Credo)

Lumentum (LITE):

> Growth Drivers: Lumentum management noted that the "best is yet to come" as several major growth drivers—optical scale-up, optical scale-out, and optical circuit switches (OCS)—are just beginning to ramp up and are not yet fully reflected in their numbers.

> 1.6T Transition: The company is seeing a significant tailwind from the transition to 1.6T transceivers, led by NVIDIA and Google, with 200-gig EMLs providing roughly double the average selling price (ASP) of previous generations.

> Scale-Out Business: The partnership with NVIDIA for high-powered lasers in CPO switch platforms is a major focus, with expected incremental revenue of $50 million to $100 million in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 alone.

Credo Technology (CRDO):

> Market Outperformance: Credo has significantly outperformed larger rivals like NVIDIA and Broadcom in share price gains during 2026, largely due to its specialized role in high-speed, energy-efficient connectivity.

> Optical Portfolio: Following its acquisition of DustPhotonics, Credo has strengthened its silicon photonics capabilities. The company expects its optical connectivity business to generate over $600 million in revenue in fiscal 2027, supported by a 1.6T networking transition.

$Lumentum(LITE.US) $Credo Tech(CRDO.US) $Broadcom(AVGO.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $STMicroelectronics NV(STM.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $Meta Platforms(META.US) $Tower Semicon(TSEM.US) $Marvell Tech(MRVL.US) $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) $Microsoft(MSFT.US) $Amazon(AMZN.US)

$Credo Tech(CRDO.US) | Evercore ISI 𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬 𝐂𝐫𝐞𝐝𝐨 𝐓𝐞𝐜𝐡 with an 𝐎𝐮𝐭𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦 rating, sets 𝐏𝐓 𝐚𝐭 $𝟑𝟐𝟓

Analyst sees Credo's evolution into a broad copper + optical AI-connectivity play expanding its TAM by 10x-20x and driving a 70%+ 3yr earnings CAGR.

TLDR of my “recovery” trades:

Including some new trades from last week, if anyone was interested.

In order of concentration:

1. $Credo Tech(CRDO.US) ($190) - that 18% dip after earnings was such an obvious buy-point.

2. $Nokia Oyj(NOK.US) ($14) - started a sizeable position on Thursday's market close. Not sure why they're down 20%?

3. $Reddit(RDDT.US) ($150) - will add more soon.

4. $Qualcomm(QCOM.US) ($148) - pre-earnings trade from April that I still hold.

5. $Ciena(CIEN.US) ($488) - opened a position on the dip after their earnings report a couple weeks ago. Keeps dipping though lol.

6. $ServiceNow(NOW.US) ($102) - what on earth was that SaaS fake pump at the end of May? Down around 7% and plan to DCA in pre-specified tranches if it keeps dipping. Long-term hold for me for when quality SaaS makes a resurgence one day.

7. $Fabrinet(FN.US) ($570) - started a position last week, 20% dip seems aggressive on quite impressive earnings + outlook.

8. $Netflix(NFLX.US) ($77) - started the position on Thursday market close. A 40% dip in the past year is mental.

9. $Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF(BTC.US) ($63k) - not a crypto bull/expert at all, it's just a fun trade to see what happens. Will be the first to go if I need to raise cash.

As of right now, most could easily turn into longer-term holds.

Today's top gainers: $Aevex(AVEX.US)* $Credo Tech(CRDO.US) $Crocs(CROX.US) $Legend Biotech(LEGN.US) $Rocket Lab(RKLB.US) $Arm(ARM.US) $Kyverna Therapeutics(KYTX.US) $Apollo Global(APO.US) $Hims & Hers Health(HIMS.US)*

* = trim

Source: Minerva Capital

Holy sell alert 🚨

Markwayne Mullin just filed up to $755k of trades.

Buys: $0

Sells: $755K

It appears he liquidated the majority of his positions including $Primo Brands(PRMB.US), $Stride(LRN.US), $Dell Tech(DELL.US), $Credo Tech(CRDO.US), $Iron Mountain(IRM.US) and more.