GlobalFoundries

Morgan Stanley note on CPO today. Key participants include:

- $SIVE, $Coherent Corp.(COHR.US), and $Lumentum(LITE.US) in laser supply

- Broadcom and Nvidia in switch platforms

- Lightmatter, Ayar Labs, Marvell/Celestial, and POET in optical engines and photonics,

- $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US), $GlobalFoundries(GFS.US), and $Tower Semicon(TSEM.US) in silicon photonics foundry capacity

I’ve covered all of these before, like Tower Semi.

But I’m especially happy that Morgan Stanley validated my research that $SIVE is one of the critical global players in CPO.

A small $1.5B laser company next to your two leading $60B+ companies…

If you also synthesize Rosenblatt Securities recent note that China laser suppliers were quite far from having CPO lasers.

This kinda magnifies importance of the three Western leaders of that laser chokepoint.

Morgan Stanley on CPO:

What are the Transmission Approaches As Industry Eventually Hits "Copper Wall"?

"Co-packaged optics (CPO) is emerging as a critical architectural shift for AI datacenter networking, driven by the rising power, bandwidth, and density constraints of traditional pluggable optical modules"

"Reduced interconnect power is the most tangible near-term benefit, with CPO potentially lowering optical interconnect power consumption by roughly 50-80%"

"Key participants include Broadcom and NVIDIA in switch platforms, Lightmatter, Ayar Labs, Marvell/Celestial AI, and POET in optical engines and photonics, TSMC, GlobalFoundries, and Tower in silicon photonics foundry capacity, and Lumentum, Coherent, and Sivers in laser supply."

📢 𝐉𝐔𝐒𝐓 𝐈𝐍: SEALSQ, GlobalFoundries Partner on Post-Quantum Security and Quantum Chips - $GlobalFoundries(GFS.US) $SEALSQ(LAES.US)

👉 𝐊𝐞𝐲 𝐇𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐬:

➤ 𝐒𝐄𝐀𝐋𝐒𝐐 and 𝐆𝐥𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐥𝐅𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐫𝐢𝐞𝐬 signed a strategic 𝐌𝐨𝐔 to co-develop secure semiconductor technologies.

➤ Partnership focuses on 𝐏𝐨𝐬𝐭-𝐐𝐮𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐮𝐦 𝐂𝐫𝐲𝐩𝐭𝐨𝐠𝐫𝐚𝐩𝐡𝐲, secure chiplets, and quantum computing.

➤ Companies will co-develop 𝐩𝐫𝐞-𝐜𝐞𝐫𝐭𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐞𝐝 PQC security IP and Chiplet Hardware Security Modules.

➤ Collaboration includes 𝐂𝐫𝐲𝐨𝐂𝐌𝐎𝐒 ASIC development for future quantum computing systems.

➤ Initiative leverages GF's 𝐔.𝐒. manufacturing capabilities and SEALSQ's secure semiconductor expertise.

➤ Partnership supports 𝐔.𝐒. and 𝐄𝐮𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐞𝐚𝐧 sovereign and trusted semiconductor supply chains.

➤ Collaboration builds on GF's 𝐐𝐮𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐮𝐦 𝐓𝐞𝐜𝐡𝐧𝐨𝐥𝐨𝐠𝐲 𝐒𝐨𝐥𝐮𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 business and SEALSQ's quantum investments.

👉 𝐖𝐡𝐲 𝐈𝐭 𝐌𝐚𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐬:

➤ Positions both companies for growing demand in 𝐪𝐮𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐮𝐦-𝐬𝐚𝐟𝐞 cybersecurity.

➤ Expands secure semiconductor offerings for 𝐀𝐈, defense, and critical infrastructure.

➤ Supports development of scalable 𝐪𝐮𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐮𝐦 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐮𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 ecosystems.

👉 𝐄𝐱𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐭 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭:

➤ "A shared long-term vision between GF and SEALSQ is that semiconductors, cybersecurity, Post-Quantum Cryptography, and quantum computing are converging into a single technology ecosystem. GlobalFoundries is one of the world's leading semiconductor manufacturers, and its growing commitment to security and quantum technologies perfectly complements SEALSQ's expertise in secure semiconductors, PQC, and our investments across the quantum ecosystem. This partnership is a natural fit and a powerful validation of our shared vision. Together, we have the opportunity to help shape the secure and scalable technology platforms that will power the quantum era." — 𝐂𝐚𝐫𝐥𝐨𝐬 𝐌𝐨𝐫𝐞𝐢𝐫𝐚, CEO of SEALSQ.

➤ "This partnership is about building the foundation for the quantum era: trusted digital infrastructure secured by Post-Quantum Cryptography and the semiconductor technologies that will enable future quantum computing systems. SEALSQ's secure-semiconductor and Post-Quantum Cryptography expertise complements GF's differentiated technology portfolio and expanding quantum capabilities. Together, we are uniquely positioned to give customers and partners the technologies needed to secure and enable the quantum future." — 𝐍𝐢𝐜𝐡𝐨𝐥𝐚𝐬 𝐒𝐞𝐫𝐠𝐞𝐚𝐧𝐭, Vice President of Quantum Technology Solutions at GlobalFoundries.

$SIVE is raising ~$61M (600M SEK) to expand manufacturing capacity for InP lasers and optical amplifiers.

Sivers operates as a fab-lite model so this is likely hinting at foundry allocation/scaling for CW DFB laser ramp across Jabil, and their other partners.

It could also point to broader foundry allocation/scaling beyond the already announced WIN partnership.

My feedback is that it's very bullish if it's comprised of long-only institutions and there's no heavy discount (30 day VWAP). Otherwise, would need to reaccess if there's arb or short term investors.

This is the perfect time to get ideal strategic investors like $GlobalFoundries(GFS.US) on the cap table. As well as focusing on having more US institutional support.

Especially considering $56M is a small check to a single US institution that want photonics exposure (eg. look at Poet's $400M registered direct offering for sentiment).

A lot of it is "it depends when more info comes out", but this looks like a very positive signal for mass production given Siver's fab-lite models.

I've reached 900k followers, thank you everyone!

Just some reflection, it's actually a nightmare at higher counts...

Which is new to me, since I started at almost nothing earlier this year.

1. Threats of safety, which I don't enjoy.

- Random new accounts sending personal threats

- Mysterious foreign accounts, sending coercive messages the moment I mention a foreign ticker

If I hold an opinion about a stock, I'd prefer not to have anyone show up on the street with a knife at night since it's safety risk at this point...

Never felt like I'd have to take that into consideration for holding an opinion.

2. Egregious media narratives

- Lot of outlets try to dismiss my ideas like $RPI or $SIVE as "meme stocks" or me as "meme trader" when I talk about supply chain chokepoints or fundamental catalysts to revenue due to AI.

Without ever covering the core ideas or hyperscaler mapping I've done.

I let success validate my ideas, but it's annoying when they can just pretend their claims like "___ will imminently crash as a fact" which ends up not happening.

Or that "___" is just a retail meme stock without mentioning $Jabil(JBL.US), Ayar, $GlobalFoundries(GFS.US) or others for CPO scale up or pluggables.

I'm grateful to some outlets, like in Belgium for $XFAB coverage, but many others try and paint their own narrative rather than covering a very nuanced thesis objectively.

- When I mention a ticker in a foreign market, some try to frame me as some "adversarial account"!

I'm just sharing ideas, and I'll always disclose positions/financial interest if I have them.

If I say I have none, they just make up some narrative that I'm some foreign institution or random group inside their country that does.

Some have even tried hilariously forging screenshots of me to harm my reputation, which was annoying to deal with. Since it's easier to textedit a photo and spread it around than it is to dispel disinformation.

Lot of institutions know me personally by now.

I just don't go broadcasting my identity to random people in the media/public, since personal security gets expensive and I just want to live about my day.

3. Endless X bot spam

- I have endless hundreds of comments a day trying to link external communities pretending they're me.

I manually delete, and block thousands of these accounts, sometimes hit regular people by accident.

And it's extremely exhausting to the point my fingers cramp certain days.

Even if I give the most blatant warnings in bio, people still get scammed and think it's me. Then I get blamed for it too.

I actually had a conversation where someone asked if a scammer was me.

I said no verbatim, then they double checked like 2-3 more times because they didn't believe I said no because someone had the same username on another scam platform.

In another world, maybe we'll get automod type tools. But until then, it's mentally exhausting dealing with all of this. But I do so anyways since I don't want my followers to get scammed.

4. Endless engagement baiting

- I have tons of people making up fake stuff about me, tagging me in posts, randomly bashing my ideas while missing any technical nuance in order to get me to comment or farm views.

It's a catch 22 since the moment I reply, they get a lot of views, which was their goal. And if I don't reply it just looks like I'm avoiding something (which is not true).

I'm very transparent, I always try and entertain people who disagree first. But when it gets into personal attacks or leading questions/disinformation rather than substance then I don't engage.

It's a little sad though when people I've interacted with end up caring more about engagement over relationships down the road.

5. People missing the nuance

- I share ideas pretty often and I always maintain I don't want people to copytrade or blindly follow, which is why I haven't set up any copytrading apps.

Before it was just posting with a few $Reddit(RDDT.US) friends on ideas like $AXT(AXTI.US), $Nebius(NBIS.US), or $Astera Labs(ALAB.US), and people were more knowledgeable traders.

Then seeing if markets validate my guesses like with InP substrate bottlenecks.

But because many turned out directionally right, to the point it became a central talking point between China/US trade relations, lot of random folks started to follow my account last few months.

But many of them miss nuances with float dilution, or material updates along the way such as rate hikes, and I get blamed if a thesis changes.

Now since there's so many random people, even if I share an idea about $Cerebras(CBRS.US) last Friday.

At market open I had people panicking over a 2% drop, asking me if I did something to a $44B+ company, even if it went up 20%+ today.

Now I have compliance review for posts, which delays things a lot but makes sure people don't get the wrong idea. And I have to be careful about my timing, so I post new ideas when markets close.

Before, it was just sharing ideas the moment I had them during lunch or in the shower, so this is becoming a headache.

6. I post my core ideas for free. And I've always said this from the start.

I actually made my subscribers chat literally by accident, and set the bare minimum amount on purpose since I didn't want to take people's money. But kept it so I could avoid the bots and not spam the main timeline with random thoughts/scrapped research.

I think me becoming the #1 most subscribed to person on X was literally by accident.

But lot of weird narratives out there when media or others don't believe that I just genuinely want to share my ideas for free.

And that people shouldn't need to pay $300 in a paywalled community to see them.

_

Not sure if people want to read it all, but just some things I've gone through.

It's not as much fun at higher numbers and it would be nice to go back to when I was smaller.

Regardless, I'd rather not turn this into a job, or make it feel like one.

Will probably take a break when I hit 1M as a milestone and do something else that will help out the community like sharing my research pipelines and such.

Think a lot of my friends at 10-50K follower counts, seem to experience some of these issues too. But problems get magnified a lot at this level.

I never needed the X creator fees or anything, just wanted to share ideas for fun if people wanted to listen.

And didn't expect any popularity, but it's nice to see that people find my ideas compelling.

New reports that $AMD(AMD.US) is scrambling for CW laser supply.

And is negotiating large-scale purchase orders for CW Lasers to ensure its production capacity is not constrained by $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) (Trendforce)

Obvious CW laser beneficiaries:

- $SIVE (AMD went to GFS for CPO, Sivers reference laser level)

- $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US) (Rosenblatt analyst checks)

Lumentum/Coherent are kinda booked out way into 2028 as well.

Lumentum is especially constrained for CW capacity already from existing EML contracts (so they probably are buying from Sumitomo/Furukawa and co).

Maybe Macom and Japanese giants still have spare capacity. (disclosure, own aaoi/sivers).

I predicted this last year and said hyperscalers should go more upstream to secure capacity... at laser levels, epiwafer levels, or even inp substrate levels.

To not get bottlenecked by Nvidia.

I don't like or dislike $SIVE:

The information discovery edge & forward bull narrative has been priced in:

Where Sivers makes a genuinely necessary component, InP external lasers that silicon can't replace, w/ four legit AI design-ins:

1. Ayar light source

2. $GlobalFoundries(GFS.US) reference design

3. $POET Tech(POET.US) Optical Interposer ELS

4. $Jabil(JBL.US) 1.6T LRO pluggable module

That is the true, defensible bull case + it's not a mirage.

Further highlighted by:

- JP Morgan disclosed a ~5% stake

- index inclusions have happened

- multiple analysts now publish

But now:

You're essentially betting on Sivers' conversion.

I.e. will the design-ins turn into qualified volume revenue, and when?

The same story has repeated itself with hundreds of growth names over the years - $NVIDIA(NVDA.US), $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) and early $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) etc.

Sivers aren't an early stage start-up, and management have acknowledged huge, growing interest in the company now.

So the pressure should be on them to deliver volume ramps in accordance with widely porported timelines of 2027-2028.

Another collaboration announcement like $GlobalFoundries(GFS.US) wouldn't signal that, but it could definitely lead to another re-rate higher given their tiny MC.

But ideally, at some point soon, you do wanna see some sort of POs etc that confirms their $799M "opportunity" pipeline.

No idea when that happens given all the conflicting info this week on CPO timelines (SemiAnalysis, MS etc).

Imo, it's turned into a waiting game for Ayar / $Jabil(JBL.US) / $Marvell Tech(MRVL.US) - which then go to ship to end customers like $AMD(AMD.US) / $Microsoft(MSFT.US) / $Amazon(AMZN.US).

And what % of the TAM Sivers can secure given they all multi-source laser supply from other places like $Coherent Corp.(COHR.US) or $Macom Tech(MTSI.US) or $Lumentum(LITE.US) - who are known to have laser shortages.

Will continue to hold my position - don't see any point in liquidating large % gains rn.

European Chips Act 2.0:

I don't see any info on new names receiving investment.

There are 4x reports all over 100 pages long lol.

But from European Chips Act 1.0:

Total investment of over €32B:

- $STMicroelectronics NV(STM.US): €5.73B

- $STMicroelectronics NV(STM.US) x $GlobalFoundries(GFS.US): €7.5B

- ESMC: >€10B

- Silicon Box: €3.2B

- Infineon: €3.54B

- ams OSRAM: €0.567B

- Ephos: not disclosed

- $ON Semiconductor(ON.US): €1.64B

- $GlobalFoundries(GFS.US) solo: not disclosed

- $XFAB: not disclosed

Note: these are not from Chips Act 1.0, not 2.0 from today.

Need to digest it all properly. So many words lol.

📢 𝐉𝐔𝐒𝐓 𝐈𝐍: $GlobalFoundries(GFS.US) GlobalFoundries Partners With DOE’s 𝐆𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐢𝐬 𝐌𝐢𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧 on AI Chip Development

👉 𝐊𝐞𝐲 𝐇𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐬:

➤ GlobalFoundries forms strategic partnership with the 𝐔.𝐒. 𝐃𝐞𝐩𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐨𝐟 𝐄𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐠𝐲’s Genesis Mission.

➤ Agreement connects 𝐀𝐈-𝐞𝐧𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞𝐝 chip design to U.S. semiconductor manufacturing.

➤ National Labs, universities, startups, and industry gain access to 𝐆𝐅’s manufacturing platform.

➤ Researchers will be able to move from concept to 𝐰𝐨𝐫𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐭𝐨𝐭𝐲𝐩𝐞 𝐬𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐨𝐧.

➤ GF provides design enablement resources, 𝐏𝐃𝐊𝐬, and multi-project wafer programs.

➤ 𝐆𝐅 𝐋𝐚𝐛𝐬 will lead collaboration efforts with the Genesis Mission.

➤ Partnership aims to accelerate U.S. leadership in 𝐀𝐈 and advanced computing.

💬 𝐄𝐱𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐭 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭:

"American science is generating extraordinary ideas in AI and advanced computing. What's been missing is the bridge from lab to fab," said Tom Caulfield, Executive Chairman of GlobalFoundries.

"By bringing our U.S. manufacturing platform, our PDKs and our multi-project wafer program to the Genesis Mission, we can give researchers a real path from concept to working silicon — and help the National Labs, universities and industry pull in the same direction."

Strong finish to the week with the help of $Velo3D(VELO.US) $Penguin Solutions(PENG.US) $D-Wave Quantum(QBTS.US) $Amtech(ASYS.US) $Arista Networks(ANET.US) $GlobalFoundries(GFS.US) and $Vistra(VST.US)

Have a great long weekend!

The Trump administration just committed $2 billion to quantum computing

How they're distributing the money:

• $IBM(IBM.US): $1 billion

• $GlobalFoundries(GFS.US): $375 million

• $D-Wave Quantum(QBTS.US), $Rigetti Computing(RGTI.US), and Infleqtion: ~$100 million each

• Diraq: $38 million

• And 3 private companies Atom Computing, PsiQuantum, Quantinuum

In return, the government is taking equity stakes in every company

📢 𝐉𝐔𝐒𝐓 𝐈𝐍: $GlobalFoundries(GFS.US) GlobalFoundries Launches 𝐐𝐮𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐮𝐦 𝐓𝐞𝐜𝐡𝐧𝐨𝐥𝐨𝐠𝐲 𝐒𝐨𝐥𝐮𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬

👉 𝐊𝐞𝐲 𝐇𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐬:

➤ GlobalFoundries launches new 𝐪𝐮𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐮𝐦 manufacturing business, 𝐐𝐮𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐮𝐦 𝐓𝐞𝐜𝐡𝐧𝐨𝐥𝐨𝐠𝐲 𝐒𝐨𝐥𝐮𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬.

➤ U.S. Commerce Department plans $𝟑𝟕𝟓𝐌 award to accelerate quantum manufacturing buildout.

➤ Commerce Department also receives ~𝟏% 𝐞𝐪𝐮𝐢𝐭𝐲 stake in GlobalFoundries.

➤ GF aims to manufacture complete 𝐪𝐮𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐮𝐦 𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐝𝐰𝐚𝐫𝐞 systems, including QPUs.

➤ Platform supports superconducting, trapped ion, photonic, 𝐭𝐨𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐨𝐠𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥, and spin qubits.

➤ Business leverages GF’s 𝐜𝐫𝐲𝐨𝐠𝐞𝐧𝐢𝐜 𝐂𝐌𝐎𝐒, advanced packaging, and interconnect expertise.

➤ Initiative strengthens 𝐔.𝐒. 𝐪𝐮𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐮𝐦 and semiconductor manufacturing leadership.

⚡ 𝐔𝐏𝐃𝐀𝐓𝐄: U.S. to grant $2B to 9 quantum computing firms, take stakes - WSJ

$IonQ(IONQ.US) $Infleqtion(INFQ.US) $D-Wave Quantum(QBTS.US) $Quantum Computing(QUBT.US) $Arqit Quantum(ARQQ.US) $Quantum(QMCO.US) $Rigetti Computing(RGTI.US) $BTQ Tech(BTQ.US) $SEALSQ(LAES.US) $IBM(IBM.US)

➤ IBM will receive $1 billion of the package, with GlobalFoundries getting $375 million, to boost the nascent quantum-computing industry.

➤ Companies including D-Wave quantum, Rigetti computing and Infleqtion are slated to be awarded funds by U.S. govt.

Add'l tickers from morning scans

$Amer Sports(AS.US) $Block(XYZ.US) $GlobalFoundries(GFS.US) $Intuitive Machines(LUNR.US) $Installed Building Products(IBP.US) $Stubhub - CL(STUB.US) $Snowflake(SNOW.US)

Random CPO related names I like:

- $SIVE

- Foci (3363)

- $Tower Semicon(TSEM.US)

- Browave (3163)

- PCL (4977)

- $AXT(AXTI.US)

- Msscorps (6830)

- $IQE

- Shunsin (6451)

- Furukawa Electric (5801)

- $Macom Tech(MTSI.US)

- Nextronics (8417)

- $Lumentum(LITE.US)

- $Coherent Corp.(COHR.US)

- FitTech (6706)

- $GlobalFoundries(GFS.US)

- $Advanced Semiconductor Engineering(ASX.US)

- LandMark (3081)

- $SOI

Disclosure: I own most, not all though.

Source: Serenity

GlobalFoundries 1Q26

- Revenue down -11% q/q and up +3% y/y to $1.63B at 29% GM; QJun revenue to grow 8% q/q; 1H26 tracking 4% y/y

- Except for smartphones, all other end markets up y/y

- 15-20% capex intensity in ‘26 vs 8% in '25

- SiPh will double in '26, a key driver

- Auto likely grow double-digit % in '26

- Exited FY25 with 85% utilization and from here it should pick up

Source: Sravan Kundojjala

⚡ 𝐔𝐏𝐃𝐀𝐓𝐄: GlobalFoundries Jumps as UMC Signals Chip Price Hikes - $GlobalFoundries(GFS.US) $United Microelectronics(UMC.US)

👉 𝐊𝐞𝐲 𝐇𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐬:

➤ GlobalFoundries shares rise 𝟖% on pricing strength signals.

➤ UMC plans 𝐰𝐚𝐟𝐞𝐫 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞 increases in 2H 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟔.

➤ Analysts expect 𝟓–𝟏𝟎% price hikes in 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟔 and 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟕.

➤ Morgan Stanley upgrades UMC to 𝐄𝐪𝐮𝐚𝐥𝐰𝐞𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭.

➤ Pricing driven by 𝐀𝐈-𝐥𝐞𝐝 demand at mature nodes.

➤ Strong demand for 𝐏𝐌𝐈𝐂, networking, and storage chips.

➤ Fab utilization improving amid tight 𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞-𝐧𝐨𝐝𝐞 capacity

Source: Hardik Shah