0515 ｜Dolphin Focus:

🐬 Macro / Sector

1. Today marks Jerome Powell's final day as Fed Chair and the start of Kevin Warsh's first term. On the same day, Governor Stephen Milan submitted his resignation and will depart as Warsh takes office. The reshuffle opens a window for policy recalibration; Warsh leans hawkish and advocates a mix of QT and rate cuts, and may tweak the inflation-control framework, while Milan's exit after six dissenting votes weakens the dovish bloc, adding near-term uncertainty to policy and impacting global liquidity and asset pricing.

2. The PBoC released Apr credit data: new TSF was RMB 620.7bn (down RMB 539.2bn YoY); new RMB loans were -RMB 10bn (down RMB 290bn YoY; a rare negative print). M2 rose 8.6% YoY, M1 rose 5.0%, and outstanding TSF grew 7.8% YoY. Softer credit mainly reflected mortgage contraction and a shift by corporates toward direct financing, while M2 improved on higher non-bank deposits, keeping liquidity loose.

🐬 Single Stocks

1. $XIAOMI-W(01810.HK)

Xiaomi unveiled official images of the YU7 GT in 'Cherry Red', confirming a late-May launch. Positioned as a sports-grade SUV, it offers a CLTC range of 705 km and up to 1,003 hp, with showroom vehicles arriving from May 16. The model fills Xiaomi's high-end, high-performance SUV gap and continues its 'performance + utility' playbook, leveraging Nürburgring tuning and long range to benchmark against the Porsche Cayenne Turbo GT.

2. $XPeng(XPEV.US)

He Xiaopeng announced the new tech-flagship SUV, XPeng GX, will debut on May 20 with a presale price of RMB 399,800. Built on the SEPA 3.0 architecture, it offers both BEV and EREV powertrains, and features L4-grade autonomous hardware plus a garage-roaming capability. XPeng is entering the RMB 400k full-size SUV white space, taking on Li Auto L9 and Aito M9; with advanced automated driving, dual powertrains and safety redundancy as key differentiators, it could break the brand's price ceiling.

3. Dolphin Research focus: earnings and calls

SMIC: 'A price-hike wave in one hand and new narratives in the other — Is SMIC about to surge?' and 'SMIC (Trans): Foundry pricing steady to higher; the price-hike effect to persist'

Applied Materials: 'AMAT (Trans): Semi equipment to grow 30%+ this year; GPM on a steady uptrend' and 'AMAT (Trans): Semi equipment to grow 30%+ this year; GPM on a steady uptrend'

Leapmotor and H World report tonight

🐬 Top Gainers by Sector

A-shares: Data processing & outsourcing; sporting goods and other leisure products; industrial gases.

HK: Recreational facilities (incl. stadiums); furniture/home improvement retailers; road freight.

US: Communications equipment; road freight; security & alarm services.

🐬 Watch Tomorrow

1. China Apr retail sales YoY; China Apr industrial production YoY.

Risk disclosure and statements: Dolphin Research Disclaimer and General Disclosure