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$XIAOMI-W(01810.HK)

⏰Xiaomi Update: Retesting Support – Trade Cautiously Ahead of Earnings

Last reviewed: 21 April 2026. Current price: HKD 30.14

Back in late March and April update, i flagged HKD 30.77 as a strong buy zone. Now in May, price has dipped to HKD 30.14, revisiting critical support and with Q1 2026 earnings looming large.

🔷Technical Analysis

🟢 Bollinger Bands: Price is pressing the lower band (~HKD 29.50–29.95) on 4H/Daily charts, signaling deep short-term oversold conditions. Bands are compressing, hinting at a volatility squeeze.

🟢RSI: Daily RSI at 40.74, 4H at 40.31 – oversold but no bullish divergence yet; downward momentum slowing, not reversed.

🟢Trend: Downtrend from HKD 60 is mature but no clear reversal confirmation.

🔷Fundamentals & Key Updates

🟢Upcoming Q1 2026 Earnings: Results are due on 22 May 2026. The market is focusing on smartphone margin recovery, IoT growth and EV (SU7) delivery/profitability updates. Expect heightened volatility around the release.

🟢Share Buybacks: Management confidence remains strong, with ongoing repurchases under the HK$2.5B program, forming a solid floor near current levels.

🟢Analyst View: Consensus is still Buy and overweight (targets HKD 40–55) but some have trimmed near-term estimates, citing cautiousness on margin pressures.

⚠️ Verdict: Cautious Trading & Measured Accumulation

This is a value zone but trade carefully ahead of earnings.

✅ Strong Support: HKD 29.50–30.00 (backed by buybacks)

🎯 Targets: HK$34.50 → HK$40.00

Good risk-reward but let price and earnings confirm the bounce first.

Not financial advice. Do your own DD.

$XIAOMI-W(01810.HK)

After Listening to the latest earnings call, I feel good about where Xiaomi is headed. Management seems on the right track.

Below are summary of the earnings call.

❤️ EV Demand Surges

· New SU7 pulled in 15k+ locked orders in 34 mins, over 30k in 3 days

· 60% of early buyers were iPhone users. A major brand crossover

· 2026 delivery target: 550k vehicles. European entry set for next year

❤️ Hardware Headwinds

Rising memory chip costs are squeezing smartphone & IoT margins. A potential price hikes ahead to protect profitability.

❤️ AI-First, No Gimmicks

R&D to hit ¥40B in 2026, with a focus on real integration,and not just “AI phone” hype.

❤️The Catch

Strong EV buzz vs. heavy cash burn for AI and supply chain pressures hence near-term profitability.

❤️Conclusion: I am comfortable holding Xiaomi shares for mid term.😁

Xiaomi Quick Interpretation: Xiaomi's performance this quarter generally met market expectations, with improvements in revenue and gross margin mainly driven by the automotive business. Specifically, traditional businesses are under significant pressure, while the automotive business contributes the current main increment.

① Traditional Business: The company's mobile phone business declined again year-on-year this quarter, with a slight increase in mobile phone shipments, but the average price of mobile phones continued to decline, which is actually a sign of intensified competition.

On the other hand, the previously high growth of the IoT business, a major driver of the company's traditional business, has no longer been sustained this quarter, with growth slowing to single digits.

After the tightening of state subsidies (changed to coupon grabbing or lottery), it has significantly affected the demand in the terminal market, directly impacting the logic of the company's traditional business recovery.

Currently, coupled with the impact of rising storage prices, the company's mobile phone gross margin has fallen to around 11% this quarter. If storage prices continue to rise next year, it will directly pressure the company's performance next year;

② Automotive Business: The high growth performance of Xiaomi's automotive business in the financial report is mainly due to past backlog orders. From a dynamic perspective, the company's production capacity and orders should be considered together.

Xiaomi's automotive deliveries reached 48,000 units in October, indicating that the company currently has a monthly production capacity of nearly 50,000 units. However, the company's current weekly order situation has fallen to 4-5k units, corresponding to only about 20,000 new orders per month. In other words, this means that the company is consuming about 30,000 units of 'backlog orders' each month.

Considering the ramp-up situation of the company's second-phase factory, if the company continues to have 4-5k weekly orders, then by mid-next year, the company's 'backlog orders' will be exhausted. At that time, the logic of the company's automotive business will shift from 'supply shortage' to a demand-driven 'supply surplus'.

Overall, 'tightening of state subsidies', 'rising storage prices', and 'decline in weekly orders' are all recent negative factors for Xiaomi, directly affecting market expectations for the company next year. Currently, Xiaomi is also in a 'vacuum period' for new products, with new mobile phones already released and no new automotive products recently.

If there is no strong response to the above negative factors, it will be difficult for Xiaomi to gain market confidence at this stage. For more information, please follow Dolphin Research's subsequent detailed commentary and management minutes. $XIAOMI-W(01810.HK) $XIAOMI-WR(81810.HK) $Xiaomi Corporation(XIACY.US)

Qualcomm Quick Interpretation of Financial Report: The company's revenue for this quarter exceeded expectations, primarily driven by growth in the smartphone business; the decline in gross margin was due to the increased proportion of QCT hardware, which diluted the company's overall gross margin.

The decline in the company's profit for this quarter was mainly affected by the inclusion of a $5.7 billion deferred tax asset reserve. Excluding this impact, the company's net profit for this quarter is approximately $2.6 billion. The increase in R&D expenses and selling and administrative expenses also contributed to the decline in quarterly profit.

The company's current smartphone business remains the largest source of revenue, accounting for 60% of total revenue. The acceleration in smartphone business growth this quarter does not indicate an improvement in demand in the Android smartphone market (global smartphone market shipment growth in the third quarter was only in the low single digits), but is mainly due to the company once again releasing this year's flagship smartphone SoC—Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen5 ahead of schedule, nearly a month earlier than the previous generation Gen4, with downstream manufacturers' stocking demand also being brought forward.

For the company's guidance for the next quarter, the company expects revenue of $11.8-12.6 billion, better than market expectations ($11.6 billion). However, if viewed from the midpoint of the range ($12.2 billion) with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8%, it is actually lower than the 13% quarter-on-quarter increase in the same period last year, which also confirms the demand preposition effect brought by the early release of new products.

Overall, the company's current performance still mainly revolves around the smartphone and IoT businesses, remaining quite stable. These traditional fields are already quite mature and stable, and will also be affected by factors such as the tightening of state subsidies policies. The market is more looking forward to the company's growth opportunities in the AI PC and data center fields. As the company's stock price had been maintained in the $150-170 range, it surged to $200 on the day of announcing its entry into the AI data center at the end of October.

Since there is no more incremental information, the company's stock price has fallen back again. Compared to the narrative in traditional fields, if the company can provide more progress on AI PC or data center orders and specific product planning, it will better stimulate market enthusiasm. For more detailed information, please follow Dolphin Research's subsequent commentary and Minutes content. $Qualcomm(QCOM.US)