AMD, TSMC and OSAT Channel Check:
1. AMD's AI GPU production (MI455/MI450) is expected to remain 100% at TSMC CoWoS in 2027. Production estimates land at a mid-point of 600k units for both SKUs next year per recent MS forecasts.2. While ASE and Amkor still lead OSAT capacity, their capacity ramps are rumoured to be progressing slower than expected. This means that TSMC may be required to support CoWoS-L wafers for AMD's Venice CPU prodction which would further constrain internal capacity for MI455/MI450 production. Per MS, this would equate to TSMC supporting ~80k CoWoS-L for Venice production.$AMD(AMD.US) $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) $Amkor Tech(AMKR.US) $Advanced Semiconductor Engineering(ASX.US)
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Morgan Stanley has CapEx of CSPs ~12% in 2028, with spending on AI semiconductors expected to increase even more.
> CoWoS/CoPoS/EMIB-T capacity is estimated to grow by 50% in 2028, while infrastructure spending (such as factories and AI data centers) will remain flat, and memory prices will grow moderately in 2028.> TSMC's CoWoS capacity will expand from 130,000 wafers per month in 2026, 200,000 wafers per month in 2027, to 260,000 wafers per month in 2028.> MI500 series (codename Arcadia) is expected to enter small-scale production by the end of 2027. Production capacity for both the MI455 and MI450 is likely to reach approximately 500,000–650,000 units.> TSMC's total CoWoS-L orders will increase by 200% year-on-year to 210,000 wafers in 2027.> TSMC's CoPoS capacity is projected to reach 50,000–100,000 wafers per month in 2028 and 100,000–200,000 wafers per month in 2029, but this will depend on the results of the trial production.> MS forecasts that TSMC's CoPoS capacity is projected to reach 50,000–100,000 wafers per month in 2028 and 100,000–200,000 wafers per month in 2029, but this will depend on the results of the trial production.$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) $AMD(AMD.US) $Intel(INTC.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $Amazon(AMZN.US) $Meta Platforms(META.US) $Microsoft(MSFT.US) - 谋
[Mou Weekly] Stop guessing, this is exactly what Warsh meant to say (Week 35 of 2026 | Issue No. 285)
On Saturday, I shared the Chinese-English parallel text of Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole in the group chat and recommended reading the original. A group member replied: "How we interpret it doesn't matter; what matters is how Wall Street interprets it." This sounds smart—markets are indeed driven by pricing—but it happens to hit the bullseye of this very speech. We'll start from this quote today because the mindset behind it is exactly what Warsh dedicated an entire paragraph to criticizing. Bottom line: The most important takeaway isn't whether he's 'hawkish,' but that Warsh announced a change in the rules of the game. Understanding this...
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FeaturedTrade & Earn Rewards | Nvidia Q2 Earnings Preview, How Smart Money Is Betting on the AI Chip Market
🎁Nvidia Earnings Week – Trade & Win!（SGD Cash、Task coins...) ✨✨$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) remains the standardAvailable in every cloud.RUBIN & why upside is a 27 Jan story: Rubin ships in Q3. MS models ~150,000 u...
NVDA Bulls, Bears Split On Doubling Chip Sales - L
An analysis by JP Morgan on the winners of open-source vs. closed-source in different scenarios
The conclusion is that regardless of whether open-source weights, closed-source weights win or lose, or if it's a dead heat, large cloud providers and NVIDIA will all win
The logic behind open-source models benefiting cloud providers: The rise of open-source models is dismantling the monopoly of closed-source models, transforming CSPs from mere resellers of tokens into AI operating systems: Cloud providers control routing rights, customer relationships, and pricing power, allowing them to directly host open-source models and sell tokens, thereby reducing external profit-sharing. Meanwhile, open-source competition drives up training investment and call volumes.
This ultimately forms a positive cycle: Model layer rents decrease → Cloud provider monetization efficiency improves → Inference price drops stimulate new demand → High data center utilization drives continuous compute investment
$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Alphabet(GOOGL.US)$Amazon(AMZN.US)$Microsoft(MSFT.US)$Palantir Tech(PLTR.US)
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$SpaceX(SPCX.US)
🤖 Is SpaceX’s AI Being Valued At Zero?
That’s the big question facing SPCX as it keeps sliding post‑IPO.
⏰ The $100 Inflection Point:
The idea that hitting $100 means SpaceX’s AI business is worth zero comes directly from top Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas.
At that price level, the market would effectively value all AI projects including Grok and the Cursor acquisition at absolutely nothing.
⏰ Why The Doubt?
Investors worry about the massive capital needed for AI infrastructure, especially compared to the proven cash flow from its Space & Starlink operations.
⏰Where It Stands Now:
After peaking at $225.64, shares have fallen sharply to ~$110.85 (well below the $135 IPO price) .
⏰ More Supply Coming:
Coming 6 August brings the first major lock‑up expiry, releasing up to 911.5 million shares. It is effectively doubling current free float and adding more pressure.
Even so, Morgan Stanley stays bullish with a $300 price target, calling current levels an attractive entry point.
They point to recent wins like the 13th Starship test flight and next year’s NASA moon mission as proof execution stays firmly on track.
Is the market overreacting or has the AI hype run too far ahead? 🛰️🤔
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📢 𝐉𝐔𝐒𝐓 𝐈𝐍: IDF and Oaktree Invest $1.7 Billion in Bloom Energy AI Power Project - $Nebius(NBIS.US) $Bloom Energy(BE.US)
👉 𝐊𝐞𝐲 𝐇𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐬:➤ 𝐈𝐃𝐅 and 𝐎𝐚𝐤𝐭𝐫𝐞𝐞 announce 𝐒𝟏.𝟕 𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 AI infrastructure investment.➤ Project will deploy 𝐁𝐥𝐨𝐨𝐦 𝐄𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐠𝐲 fuel cell technology.➤ Power will serve 𝐍𝐞𝐛𝐢𝐮𝐬'𝐬 AI cloud infrastructure.➤ 𝐈𝐃𝐅 leads project development with 𝐎𝐚𝐤𝐭𝐫𝐞𝐞 as minority equity investor.➤ 𝐌𝐨𝐫𝐠𝐚𝐧 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐧𝐥𝐞𝐲 acted as sole tax equity investor and placement agent.➤ 𝐌𝐔𝐅𝐆 𝐁𝐚𝐧𝐤 provided senior debt financing.➤ Project delivers dedicated 𝐛𝐞𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐝-𝐭𝐡𝐞-𝐦𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐫 power for AI operations.➤ IDF and Bloom have developed over 𝐒𝟐.𝟔 𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 in projects together.➤ 𝐎𝐚𝐤𝐭𝐫𝐞𝐞 managed 𝐒𝟐𝟐𝟒 𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 in assets as of March 31, 2026.👉 𝐄𝐱𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐭 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬:𝐀𝐦𝐚𝐧 𝐉𝐨𝐬𝐡𝐢, Chief Commercial Officer of Bloom Energy:"AI infrastructure customers need more than innovative technology. They also need a path to finance and deploy power rapidly. Our collaboration with IDF demonstrates how institutional capital can help accelerate the build-out of AI infrastructure."𝐍𝐢𝐤 𝐍𝐮𝐧𝐞𝐬, CEO of IDF:"meet the energy demands of the AI economy."𝐀𝐮𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐧 𝐏𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐬𝐨𝐧, Managing Director of Oaktree:"confidence in Bloom's fuel cell technology" - O
FeaturedNetflix reports Q2 2026 earnings this Thursday
Netflix reports Q2 2026 earnings this Thursday (July 17) after market close. Here's the analytical setup:
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